The official story

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been telling interviewers that Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries are why Americans pay record prices at the pump.

The numbers hurt

Crude is back above $100, around $105. Gasoline hit $4.29 a gallon, up a dollar in a year. Diesel crossed $6 for the first time ever.

Trump's $5,000 offer

At a Dallas convention, Trump offered voters $5,000 in cash for a Republican midterm vote. That is 830 gallons of diesel, roughly 25 fill-ups for an F-250.

A war in the worst place

Six months ago the U.S. and Israel opened a war on Iran, in the most energy-critical region on earth. Global energy trade has not worked normally since.

How closed is Hormuz

Washington says the strait is open. Tanker trackers counting actual ships put flows near 8-9 million barrels a day, down from 20 million before the war.

Running the gauntlet

Iranian forces blow up the occasional tanker that tries the passage, which keeps the recovery slow. One tanker left the Persian Gulf on Thursday.

The bypass gets bypassed

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea was moving about 5 million barrels a day around the strait. That workaround is now under attack too.

Houthis take the islands

The Iran-backed group seized coastal positions and islands in southwestern Yemen this week, the exact real estate you need to threaten Red Sea shipping.

“Together, these positions would give the Houthis, and by extension, Iran, far greater scope to influence shipping movements, insurance premiums, and the cost of transporting energy”

Tanker war escalates

Iran shoots at U.S. ships and escorted tankers, so the U.S. military destroys Iranian-linked ones. Twelve of Iran's roughly 60 tankers are gone.

Iran can take the pain

The naval blockade means Tehran barely exports anyway. The economy is wrecked, but it has been built since 1979 to absorb exactly this.

Drones are light

Ukraine has hit Russian refineries all year, reaching Siberia lately. But damage gets repaired, and many strikes halt production for only a day.

“Our estimate is that the destroyed capacity is 12-15 percent of total Russian refinery throughput”

Refining is the real chokepoint

Global refinery throughput sits 5 million barrels a day below last year, with U.S. plants already flat out. Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese refiners are offline.

Somebody has to take the blame

Farmers face $6 diesel in harvest season, and the developing world gets hit hardest. The politics of who gets named explain the rest.

“Gasoline prices in the United States are the most significant issue ahead of elections, but nobody can blame Trump. So they blame Zelensky.”