From Foreign Policy · Nosmot Gbadamosi · · 2m
Ethiopia Returns to War Threatens Horn of Africa
Ethiopia’s civil war resurges as TPLF seizes airports, risking regional conflict.
In brief
Ethiopia’s civil war resurges as TPLF seizes airports, risking regional conflict. Ethiopia’s TPLF rebels have restarted civil war after four years, threatening wider Horn of Africa conflict. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Civil War Returns
Ethiopia’s civil war resurges after four years as TPLF rebels seize airports in Tigray region.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
TPLF Seizes Airports
TPLF launched attacks in Afar and Amhara regions after forming alliance with six armed groups to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Conflict Escalates
Pro-government forces captured Alamata, a strategic town 75 miles south of Mekelle, amid El Niño threatening crop production.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Tensions Since 2022
Tensions between TPLF and federal government rose after Pretoria Agreement ended two-year Tigray war that killed 600,000 people.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
TPLF Reestablishes Council
TPLF reestablished its prewar legislative council in May 2026 after electoral board banned it from national elections.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Eritrea’s Role
Eritrea, once TPLF ally, now allies with TPLF after decades of hostility following Ethiopia’s independence in 1993.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
U.S. Sanctions Lifted
U.S. lifted sanctions on Eritrea’s ruling party and military earlier this month, ending arms embargo on Ethiopia.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Regional Impact
Analysts fear conflict could draw in Egypt and Sudan, which accuse Ethiopia of supporting rebel groups.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Sudanese Refugee Surge
400 Sudanese refugees cross into Chad daily, a twentyfold increase from previous months, driven by drone attacks and drought.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Egypt disputes Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over water supply concerns.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
Security Vacuum
Ethiopia plans to withdraw 3,000 troops from Somalia to bolster domestic forces, creating security vacuum for al-Shabab.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
UN General Assembly
African countries push for greater representation at UN General Assembly, with Niger and Ghana advocating for permanent Security Council seats.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
U.S. Sanctions Impact
U.S. sanctions decision on Eritrea could lead TPLF to form closer ties with Eritrea, opening proxy war in Horn of Africa.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
What Happens Next
Ethiopia’s civil war threatens to engulf Horn of Africa as regional tensions escalate with Eritrea, Sudan, and Chad.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now”
What matters most
Ethiopia’s TPLF rebels have restarted civil war after four years, threatening wider Horn of Africa conflict.
