From Foreign Policy · Sam Winter-Levy, Anton Leicht · · 3m
Middle Powers Gain AI Leverage
U.S. allies can secure AI access by hosting data centers.
In brief
U.S. allies can secure AI access by hosting data centers. U.S. democratic allies can gain guaranteed access to frontier AI systems by hosting U.S. data centers, which require reliable power and governance. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
U.S. AI Access Restrictions
The White House asked Anthropic and OpenAI to withhold early access to their latest systems from the British government’s AI Security Institute.
Middle Powers at Risk
U.S. allies face limited access to frontier AI systems as Washington restricts access for its closest intelligence partner.
U.S. Data Center Buildout
Four U.S. tech companies will spend over $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year, or about 2 percent of U.S. GDP.
U.S. AI Dominance
The United States now has more data center capacity than the next 1:14 countries combined, with China hosting only about a fifth as much computing power.
Security Concerns
U.S. governments restrict access to frontier AI models due to security concerns, limiting allies’ ability to compete in the AI race.
Compute Shortfall
The surging demand for AI computing is outpacing data center buildout, causing rationing that favors non-American consumers.
Chinese Models Risk
European and Asian democracies face risks from Chinese open-source AI models, with no guarantee of continued access.
U.S. Data Center Backlash
3 in 4 Americans oppose data center construction nearby, including two-thirds of Republicans and around 80 percent of Democrats.
U.S. Data Center Challenges
U.S. grid capacity and energy constraints are tightening, with order books for gas turbines backlogged by years.
U.S. Gulf Strategy
The Trump administration’s Gulf strategy faces setbacks after Iranian drone swarms hit Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain.
Allies Offer Leverage
Five Eyes partners like Australia can offer cheap solar power and land, while Germany provides decommissioned industrial sites with grid connections.
Tax Revenue Opportunity
Loudoun County, Virginia, collects $1.3 billion annually in county taxes from ai data centers, or about $2,800 per resident.
Contractual Leverage
U.S. allies can demand contractual assurances for guaranteed access to frontier ai models at the same time as in the United States.
Enforcement Mechanism
Hosting data centers gives allies the ability to impose costs if the relationship sours, such as reducing energy access or withdrawing permits.
U.S. Political Will
The Trump administration prioritizes sustaining the U.S. lead over China on AI and keeping the stock market rally alive.
Allies’ Strategic Position
U.S. allies can secure guaranteed access to frontier ai systems by hosting data centers, creating a mutual benefit for both sides.
The bottom line
U.S. democratic allies can gain guaranteed access to frontier AI systems by hosting U.S. data centers, which require reliable power and governance.
