From Foreign Policy · Michael Kugelman · · 3m
Modi and Xi's Meeting Caps a Detente
Despite the thaw, India-China rivalry remains inevitable.
In brief
Despite the thaw, India-China rivalry remains inevitable. India and China are warming relations after years of tension, but deep structural rivalries make lasting peace unlikely. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Xi visits India after seven years

Xi Jinping traveled to New Delhi for the first time in seven years to attend the BRICS summit. He met with Modi for 24 hours.
Leaders pledge to be partners
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Modi and Xi reached consensus to be partners, not rivals. Beijing hopes for progress without stagnation or backsliding.
Detente started nearly two years ago
The rapprochement has been playing out for nearly two years. Xi's visit marked the culmination, not the start, of India-China detente.
History shows rivalry always returns

India-China ties have had good moments before, but fresh tensions invariably spoil them. The two are destined to remain rivals by history, geography, and geopolitics.
“the two are destined to remain rivals by history, geography, and geopolitics”
Border deal eased 2020 tensions
In October 2024, tensions began to ease with a new border agreement. This followed a deadly 2020 clash in Ladakh that plunged relations into deep crisis.
Trump's tariffs accelerated rapprochement
The detente began before Trump's election, but his tariffs hit both countries hard. Concerns about U.S. markets gave both sides incentive to deepen trade ties.
Massive territorial disputes remain

Both countries dispute claims to around 15,000 square miles of territory along their border, equal to the size of Greece. They also disagree on Taiwan, Tibet, and surveillance.
China arms India's rival Pakistan
China is a close ally of India's bitter rival Pakistan. Last year, Pakistan used Chinese weaponry in air combat operations against India for the first time.
Past warmth always ended badly
In 2017, a 73-day military standoff on the Doklam Plateau plunged relations into crisis. The Ladakh clash came just months after another Modi-Xi summit.
Bangladesh measles deaths pass 1,000
More than 1,000 people have died from measles since March 15. Bangladesh is suffering the world's worst measles outbreak with nearly 60,000 cases between January and June.
Vaccination campaign fell short
Nearly 20 million children have been vaccinated since April, but experts say 22.6 million needed shots. The target figure of 18 million was too low.
Nepal floods leave 5,000 missing
Three weeks after a glacial collapse caused catastrophic floods, more than 5,000 people remain missing. Massive destruction has made search and rescue difficult.
Reconstruction will cost $4.8 billion

Nepal's government estimates reconstruction will cost $4.8 billion, around one-tenth of the country's total GDP. The disaster leveled entire villages and destroyed infrastructure.
Pakistan won't fight Houthis
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said it's not contemplating military force against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. This dismisses speculation about invoking the Mecca Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
What it means
India and China are warming relations after years of tension, but deep structural rivalries make lasting peace unlikely.





