From Foreign Policy · Keith Johnson · · 1m 50s
Oil Flows Out of Hormuz
Crude oil returns to prewar levels as refined products lag.
In brief
Crude oil returns to prewar levels as refined products lag. U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has restored crude oil flows to near prewar levels but refined products remain short, causing high diesel prices for months. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Oil Flows Return
Crude oil supplies out of the Strait of Hormuz have returned nearly to prewar levels after seven months of war.
Refined Products Lag
Refined products such as gasoline and diesel remain short by over half of prewar levels, causing high prices.
Saudi Arabia Outperforms
Saudi Arabia is exporting at least 6.4 million barrels of crude daily, surpassing 2025 export numbers.
Kpler Estimates
Kpler reports average weekly crude flows at 13.5 million barrels a day, double September's average.
U.S. Naval Blockade
U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and escorting tankers have restored crude flows but not refined products.
Trump's Diesel Plan
Trump proposes a ban on U.S. diesel exports to lower prices ahead of midterm elections.
Diesel Prices Rise
Diesel prices in the U.S. and Europe hit near-record highs due to missing refined products.
Ukraine Strikes
Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries worsen the shortage of refined products.
China's Ban
China has renewed export bans on refined products, delaying global market relief.
Tanker Transfers
Ship-to-ship transfers in calmer waters off Oman strain the global tanker fleet.
Freight Rates Soar
Freight rates for tankers have risen twentyfold since the war began, reaching $1 million a day.
Iran's Response
Iran may escalate attacks on energy facilities as its economic situation worsens.
U.S. Blockade Limits
The U.S. naval presence required for the southern route out of Hormuz cannot last indefinitely.
Escalation Risk
Hostilities could resume as Iran seeks leverage and Trump threatens renewed military action.
In short
U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has restored crude oil flows to near prewar levels but refined products remain short, causing high diesel prices for months.
