From Foreign Policy · Agathe Demarais · · 3m
Russia's nuclear leverage over America
The U.S. banned Russian uranium but kept loopholes open, leaving Moscow with a $1 billion annual stranglehold on American nuclear power.
In brief
The U.S. banned Russian uranium but kept loopholes open, leaving Moscow with a $1 billion annual stranglehold on American nuclear power. The U.S. can't replace Russian uranium supplies by 2028 because decades of reliance killed domestic enrichment capacity, giving Putin a powerful bargaining chip. Originally reported…
Soviet warheads powered America
Between 1995 and 2013, uranium from 20,000 decommissioned Soviet nuclear warheads supplied up to 10 percent of U.S. electricity through the Megatons to Megawatts program.
“Between 1995 and 2013, the uranium from around 20,000 Soviet nuclear warheads supplied up to 10 percent of U.S. electricity.”
A $12 billion success with hidden costs
The program eliminated over a quarter of global bomb-grade uranium, but decades of Russian reliance crippled U.S. domestic enrichment capacity.
America lost its enrichment plants
Paducah, Kentucky, America's only domestically owned enrichment facility, shut down when the program ended. Today, the only U.S. commercial-scale enrichment plant is owned by Urenco, a British-Dutch-German firm.
Russia still dominates enrichment
In 2025, Russia's state-owned Rosatom supplied 26 percent of enrichment services to U.S. nuclear utilities, earning $1 billion annually, roughly 70 percent above prewar levels.
The ban has massive loopholes
Washington banned Russian uranium imports in August 2024, but the ban includes waivers allowing roughly 470 tons of Russian uranium per year until 2028.
Quotas copied from 1992
U.S. nuclear experts copy-pasted uranium quotas from a 1992 anti-dumping settlement without calculating appropriate import levels for current needs.
The ban barely reduces imports
In 2024, permitted Russian uranium imports were only 4 percent below prewar averages and will drop just over 1 percent yearly before a full ban in 2028.
Moscow's ban is also theater
Putin retaliated with a ban on uranium exports to the U.S., but the Kremlin issued three licenses for deliveries anyway, including 100 tons to Baltimore in February 2025.
Domestic replacements won't arrive in time
The U.S. Energy Department gave $900 million to three enrichment companies, but none expect commercial-scale output before the 2030s.
Lawrence Livermore agrees: too slow
Researchers concluded that domestic production will not be sufficient to replace Russian uranium by the end of the decade.
Four firms control global uranium
Rosatom controls 43 percent of global enrichment capacity, Urenco 25 percent, China National Nuclear Corp. 20 percent, and France's Orano 11 percent.
China is not a solution
The Energy Department suspects Beijing facilitated re-export of Russian uranium to the U.S. in 2023-24, making Chinese suppliers unreliable.
Europe and U.S. compete for same supply
Urenco and Orano have thin spare capacity and won't expand production until 2028. Europe is also cutting Russian uranium dependency, creating bidding competition.
Congress quietly removed tough sanctions
The Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act removed provisions threatening foreign uranium purchasers with sanctions, signaling Washington expects to miss the 2028 deadline.
Advanced reactors need Russian uranium
The White House plans to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050 using advanced reactors that run on a uranium type only Rosatom sells commercially today.
Putin's leverage in peace talks
For the Kremlin, $1 billion in annual uranium shipments is not profit but leverage. As U.S. envoys shuttle between Moscow and Kyiv, Russia holds this ace.
“For the Kremlin, annual uranium shipments of $1 billion to the United States are not about profits for Rosatom. They are a form of leverage.”
The headline
The U.S. can't replace Russian uranium supplies by 2028 because decades of reliance killed domestic enrichment capacity, giving Putin a powerful bargaining chip.
