Saudi Arabia faces multiple crises

Iranian forces block the Persian Gulf, Houthis attack the Red Sea, and a drone strike shut down Saudi Arabia's main pipeline. The country's oil exports are under siege from every direction.

The postwar security deal is broken

Since World War Two, the U.S. has guaranteed Middle East stability in exchange for Saudi bases and oil cooperation. That arrangement collapsed when Trump attacked Iran without a plan to finish the job.

The pipeline was supposed to be backup

Saudi Arabia built the East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, moving 4 to 5 million barrels daily to Red Sea ports. Then Iran-backed militias fired drones at it, forcing a shutdown that could last over a month.

Houthis now control the Red Sea

Yemen-based Houthis captured the port of Mokha and an island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. They're firing at Saudi tankers and supertankers can't fit through the Suez Canal, strangling Saudi exports.

Saudi Arabia begged Trump for help

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice asking the U.S. to bomb the Houthis. The White House refused, saying the Houthis promised not to fight America.

“The Houthis called us. They don't want to fight with us.”

Saudi Arabia paid Trump for years

After Trump won in 2016, Saudi Arabia spent heavily at his hotels and made real estate deals with the Trump Organization. The Saudi government gave Jared Kushner's investment firm 2 billion dollars.

The Kushner deal was obviously corrupt

Saudi sovereign wealth fund managers objected to the 2 billion dollar investment. A due diligence report called Kushner's company unsatisfactory in all aspects, yet the deal included 25 million dollars in annual fees regardless of performance.

Trump's first moves looked promising

Trump signed a 110 billion dollar arms deal with Saudi Arabia on his first foreign trip. He withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and dismissed CIA findings about the Khashoggi murder.

Saudi Arabia doubled down after 2020

The Saudi-backed LIV Golf league paid Trump-owned courses to host tournaments. State-connected companies made real estate deals with the Trump Organization, promising millions in licensing fees.

Then Trump attacked Iran

With Trump president again and Kushner leading Gaza diplomacy, Saudi Arabia's investment seemed to pay off. Then Trump launched a war against Iran that he couldn't win and didn't finish.

Trump caused the attacks then quit

Trump's war of choice activated Iranian militias in Yemen and Iraq that had been restrained. When diplomacy failed, Iran unleashed those groups against Saudi Arabia. Trump then pretended the problem didn't exist.

Saudi military can't handle this alone

Saudi Arabia has a large military budget but structurally weak armed forces with a poor record. Years of bombing Yemen failed to defeat the Houthis, and the country depends on U.S. support it no longer has.

Trump's strategy always fails the same way

Trump makes big threats, runs an air-only campaign, then backs down and lies about success. In 2025, he spent 1 billion dollars on munitions against the Houthis, lost fighter jets, and quit after six weeks.

There's no way to protect shipping lanes

Shipping lanes and pipelines are much easier to attack than defend. Saudi Arabia is trying tanker-to-tanker transfers off Oman, but that can't replace the lost volume.

The nuclear deal might not happen

Trump agreed to let Saudi Arabia enrich uranium without strict inspections, something no previous president would do. But Trump then said it depends on Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel, which it won't do without a Palestinian state.

Democrats could reverse everything

Even if the nuclear deal passes Congress, Democrats could reverse it when they return to power due to proliferation risks and Trump's private associates profiting from it.

Corrupt leaders are inherently weak

Saudi Arabia believed a corrupt U.S. government would serve its interests better than an ethical one. But bribable leaders are selfish and irresponsible, good at breaking things and bad at everything else.

“bribable usually means selfish and weak”

Corrupt leaders can't deliver

Personalist leaders like Marcos, Hussein, and Orban have terrible records on national interests. A bribed leader might tell you what you want to hear, but that doesn't mean they can actually deliver.

Saudi Arabia's gamble has failed

Saudi Arabia wrongly believed Trump's destruction could be limited to the United States. A corrupt Washington cannot keep serving Saudi interests when it's busy serving itself.