From Foreign Policy · Anik Joshi · · 2m
Space Launch Crisis Looms
SpaceX's Falcon 9 retirement threatens global launch capacity.
In brief
SpaceX's Falcon 9 retirement threatens global launch capacity. SpaceX's Falcon 9 retirement by 2028 creates launch capacity gaps that could disrupt commercial space operations. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Space industry boom
The commercial space market is booming after years of surviving on the fringes of a government-dominated industry.
SpaceX dominance
SpaceX has been synonymous with both launch capacity and infrastructure for years because it launches so much more than anyone else.
Falcon 9 reliability
The Falcon 9 has seen the most launches among active launch vehicles with a success rate of more than 99 percent.
Falcon 9 market share
In 2025, the Falcon 9 was used for almost half of all rocket launches globally.
Falcon 9 retirement
SpaceX recently announced plans to stop flying the Falcon 9 for rideshare missions by 2028.
Rideshare missions
Rideshare missions are necessary for commercial space companies to reduce launch costs by selling slots on the rocket priced per kilogram.
Post-2028 capacity
After 2028, SpaceX will only allow launches through the United States’ Defense Priorities and Allocations System program for national defense.
Blue Origin challenges
Blue Origin is down a launchpad due to an explosion earlier this year and has only one operational launch site for its New Glenn rocket.
ULA reliability
United Launch Alliance has historically been less than reliable in terms of making it to launch.
Arianespace limitations
Arianespace’s rockets don’t have a reusable first stage, driving high launch costs relative to SpaceX and causing schedule slippage.
Capacity constraints
Every Falcon 9 slot till 2028 is already booked, and SpaceX maintains a waiting list for launches.
Market uncertainty
No single company can leverage economies of scale at the SpaceX scale after Falcon 9 retirement.
Post-retirement impact
The government space industry will lose SpaceX’s cost advantages, potentially disrupting space operations globally.
The key point
SpaceX's Falcon 9 retirement by 2028 creates launch capacity gaps that could disrupt commercial space operations.
