From Foreign Policy · Andrew Nachemson · · 1m 50s
Thailand Faces Early Demographic Crisis
Thailand’s birth rate drops below replacement level, risking population halving in 50 years.
In brief
Thailand’s birth rate drops below replacement level, risking population halving in 50 years. Thailand’s birth rate of 1.2 per woman, below replacement level, threatens to halve the population in 50 years due to economic stagnation and rising costs of living. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Thailand’s Demographic Crisis
Thailand faces a plummeting birth rate sooner than some global south peers.
2025 Population Decline
In 2025, deaths exceeded births by nearly 140,000, risking population halving in 50 years.
Economic Impact
Declining births threaten Thailand’s economy, tax base, and government stability.
National Savings Fund Warning
The National Savings Fund described declining births as a 'warning sign' for welfare system strain.
“warning sign”
Labor Force Pressure
Working-aged people will shoulder greater burden to support elderly population, raising retirement age.
Fertility Rate Comparison
Thailand’s fertility rate of 1.2 per woman places it near Italy, Singapore, Spain, and South Korea.
Regional Context
Six of 11 ASEAN countries have fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman.
Singapore’s Policy
Singapore offers tax relief, childcare subsidies, and expanded maternity leave to slow birth rate decline.
Thailand’s Governance
Thailand has relatively low governance in political stability, corruption control, and accountability.
Fertility Treatment Expansion
Thailand plans fertility clinics in all public hospitals and intrauterine insemination clinics in all provinces.
Abortion Access
Thailand legalized abortion in first 20 weeks of pregnancy in 2021, with broad accessibility before then.
Women’s Education Impact
Women with bachelor’s degrees or higher tend to marry later and have fewer children, about 0.5 per person.
Cost of Raising Children
Raising a child costs nearly 105,000 baht annually, five times government stipend.
Political Instability Concerns
Thailand has seen 10 prime ministers in 25 years, two overthrown in military coups.
The bottom line
Thailand’s birth rate of 1.2 per woman, below replacement level, threatens to halve the population in 50 years due to economic stagnation and rising costs of living.
