Democrats hunt for the safest bet

Party leaders are desperate to find the most electable candidate for 2028, believing Trump poses an existential threat. They're setting aside policy debates to focus solely on who can win.

The problem with predicting winners

Modern U.S. history is filled with candidates dismissed as unelectable who won the presidency. Determining who is truly most electable is rarely easy.

Jimmy Carter came from nowhere

In 1976, former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter faced the question 'Jimmy Who?' after announcing his candidacy. He defeated better-known Democrats in the primaries and then beat President Gerald Ford.

Reagan defied the establishment

In 1980, Ronald Reagan was seen as too conservative and anti-establishment. He defeated more traditional Republicans like George H.W. Bush and then beat Carter, launching a transformative two-term presidency.

Trump's improbable victories shocked everyone

Trump's wins in 2016 and 2024 stunned the political establishment. He evolved from a political outsider into the defining figure of a generation of Republican politics.

Obama seemed impossible in 2007

When Barack Obama announced his candidacy on February 10, 2007, few believed he had a chance. A Black man with limited experience named Barack Hussein Obama defeating President George W. Bush seemed highly improbable.

Race and inexperience were huge obstacles

Although Reverend Jesse Jackson had run competitively in 1984 and 1988, many liberals doubted enough voters would dismantle racial barriers. Obama was also relatively unknown despite his stirring 2004 convention speech.

America was in crisis mode

The nation was still recovering from 9/11 trauma, mired in Iraq, and facing mounting economic troubles. The U.S. was in its largest military quagmire since Vietnam.

Hillary Clinton seemed like the safe choice

Democrats already had Hillary Rodham Clinton, one of the most experienced and qualified candidates to run for the presidency, with deep support within the party.

The nomination process changed everything

After the 1968 Democratic Convention, the McGovern-Fraser Commission diversified delegates and shifted power from party machines to primaries and caucuses. This created space for unconventional candidates.

Trust in government never recovered

Vietnam and Watergate shattered public trust in government. Claims of extensive experience sounded like evidence of complicity in a broken system, favoring outsiders.

The Democratic Party transformed itself

Once dominated by Southern white conservatives and organized labor, the party changed after the Voting Rights Act of 1965. By the early 2000s, it included Black and Latino Americans, immigrants, college-educated women, and younger voters.

Obama's campaign was brilliantly executed

Led by former Chicago journalist David Axelrod, Obama's team developed a sophisticated strategy centered on grassroots organizing, social media, and focus on caucus states. His fundraising operation generated unprecedented sums.

Obama was a visionary with charisma

Obama was a gifted candidate with immense charisma and steadiness. His speechwriters, led by Jon Favreau, crafted messages that resonated with voters tired of hyperpolarization.

Iraq became Clinton's liability

By the height of the primaries, the public was deeply frustrated with the disastrous Iraq War. Clinton's vote to authorize Bush's use of force remained a significant political liability.

The political moment favored Obama

Once Obama secured the Democratic nomination, the political environment strongly favored him. The ongoing war, the 2008 financial crisis, and Bush's historically low approval ratings created challenges for any Republican nominee.

McCain's campaign unraveled

McCain was dragged down by the political moment. Unforced errors, most notably selecting Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, compounded his problems.

Obama's victory seemed inevitable by November

By November 4, 2008, when Obama stood in Chicago's Grant Park to deliver his victory speech, his victory had taken on an air of inevitability. His election appeared to many as a victory for the country itself.

“I was never the likeliest candidate for this office.”

Obama appreciated his improbable success

Obama recognized how unlikely his success had seemed. He credited millions of Americans who volunteered and organized, proving that government of the people still exists.

“Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington.”

Party leaders must adapt or lose

Democrats should let candidates and voters shape evaluations rather than rely on preconceived judgments about electability. Parties risk sidelining candidates with potential if they fail to adapt to changing electorates.