The real test of statecraft

Avoiding costly conflicts that drain resources and attention is what separates smart powers from weak ones. Rivals love to watch you sink into strategic quicksand.

America's long list

Post-Cold War hubris pushed Washington into Iraq and Afghanistan, plus smaller messes in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and parts of Africa under the banner of the war on terror.

Israel's lawyer, not a mediator

Decades of presidential time went into brokering Israeli-Palestinian peace and it failed, largely because Washington played advocate rather than honest broker.

Trump walked into Iran

Few benefits, mounting costs, and no exit except a humiliating retreat. This quagmire was built on purpose, with eyes open.

Russia's running sore

Since 2000 Moscow has stacked up frozen conflicts, lost clients like Yanukovych and Assad, and landed in Ukraine. Europe is poisoned against it and China now holds the leash.

China stayed out

Beijing built power at home instead: islands in the South China Sea, diplomatic reach, stockpiles and reserves, and a grip on rare earths and supply chains.

Not free of cost

China's military buildup and sharper foreign policy have spooked its neighbors into balancing against it. Even so, its position against Washington and Moscow has improved a lot.

Warning sign one: ignorance

Nobody starts a war they expect to lose. Quagmires grow from not knowing the country, the difficulty, or how third parties will react.

If you don't know it, don't invade it

The simplest filter in the whole piece. Intervening in a place you understand poorly is the reliable path into a long war.

Warning sign two: bad advice

Someone always pitches the intervention. Be sharply skeptical of anyone whose own future improves if you send troops.

Chalabi and Netanyahu

Bush listened to pro-war Iraqi exiles who wanted to ride US tanks into power. Trump bought Netanyahu's sales pitch for war with Iran, and echoes of it from hawks at home.

Machiavelli called it

In the Discourses on Livy he warned that exiles desperate to go home will believe false things, invent others, and fill you with hopes that end in ruin.

“Such is their extreme desire to return to their homes that they naturally believe many things that are not true.”

The two feed each other

The less you know about a place, the more you lean on the people claiming they know. Ignorance and bad advice compound.

Warning sign three: groupthink

Autocrats ringed by loyalists, like Putin or Trump, skip fair debate. So does any leader who tunes out dissent and discards facts that clash with the plan.

Stress-test the case for war

We all overweight evidence that flatters what we already want. Leaders should work overtime to hear the other argument before committing.

Warning sign four: overconfidence

The enemy is weak, the government will crumble, the locals will cheer. Sometimes true, rarely. Winning the aftermath is usually harder than winning the battle.

Have a Plan B

Think through what happens the day after you win. More important, plan for the version where your theory of victory is simply wrong.

Local partners who fail you

Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, now Iran. US clients were divided, corrupt, and chasing their own agendas. Trump bet on an Iranian uprising that ignored the regime's security forces.

Putin's Kyiv fantasy

He expected Ukraine's government to dissolve at the border or hand over to pro-Russian quislings. He had no feel for how deep Ukrainian national feeling ran.

Credibility keeps you stuck

Kissinger knew Vietnam was lost and marginal, but feared that leaving would scare off allies. That obsession stretched the war another six years.