From Foreign Policy · Hekmat Aboukhater · · 3m
Trump Reopens Middle East Sectarian Tensions
Trump's policies risk sectarian war in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
In brief
Trump's policies risk sectarian war in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Trump's push to disarm Iraqi Shiite militias and pressure Syria's government to handle Hezbollah threatens to ignite sectarian violence across the Middle East. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Sectarian Wounds Remain
The violent sectarian era after U.S. invasion of Iraq peaked with Islamic State but wounds remain fresh in the Middle East.
Mass Graves Document Violence
Iraqi forensic teams uncovered remains of over 30 Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, Iraqi security personnel, and Yazidi women and children in an Islamic State mass grave near Mosul.
Syrian Mass Graves
A week earlier, another mass grave was uncovered in eastern Deir Ezzor, one of at least 18 such sites documented in Syria this year.
Sectarian Threats in Syria
Last year’s massacre of over 1,400 Syrian Alawites and sectarian killings of Druze in Suwayda threatened to unravel the new Syrian state.
Regional Sectarian Tensions
Sectarian tensions permeate Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq with recent civil wars of their own.
Great Sorting-Out
Eminent Syrianist Joshua Landis calls it the 'Great Sorting-Out,' the violent unwinding of the post-Sykes-Picot order.
“Great Sorting-Out”
Trump's Policy Shift
Trump's administration fired Nate Swanson, an official who understood Iran and Shiite politics, and rolled out policies that invite new sectarian unraveling.
Trump's Syria Policy
Trump proposed that Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Sharaa’s forces could 'take care of Hezbollah' while pushing to disarm Shiite armed factions.
“take care of Hezbollah”
Historical Sectarian Context
In 2003, U.S. invaded Iraq with little understanding of sectarian fault lines, leading to a Sunni Hashemite king being floated as a transition.
Sectarian Division in Iraq
Iraq went from blended Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods to hardened sectarian cantons and governorates.
PMF Formation
The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) was formed in 2014 after Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a 'defensive jihad' fatwa.
“defensive jihad”
Sistani's Legacy
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani turned 96 in August and has never rescinded his 2014 fatwa.
PMF Skepticism
PMF leaders fear U.S. personnel will rebrand as trainers and return, and cite Turkey’s northern footprint and Islamic State threats.
Mazlumiyah
Shiite political culture carries a powerful sense of mazlumiyah, the memory of being wronged from Hussein's martyrdom to Saddam's regime.
“mazlumiyah”
Hezbollah's Stance
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem insists weapons are an internal Lebanese matter and cannot be dictated by Washington or Israel.
“internal Lebanese matter”
Sectarian Escalation
Yemen’s civil war reignited with Iran-backed Houthis taking most of the western coast and controlling the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Sectarian Violence
Saudi-backed Giants Brigades called Houthis 'dogs' and used armored vehicles to run over them.
“dogs”
Consequences of Violence
A million people fled homes in Lebanon, and over 200,000 crossed into Syria in March alone.
Recommendation
Washington should rebuild expertise in Iraqi Shiite politics and allow institutions to negotiate sustainable arrangements.
In short
Trump's push to disarm Iraqi Shiite militias and pressure Syria's government to handle Hezbollah threatens to ignite sectarian violence across the Middle East.
