Rare revolt in farm country

With under two months to the midterms, Trump is taking loud criticism from the agricultural sector and from Republican lawmakers who usually stay quiet.

The plan that started it

The administration wants to bring in 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings over 90 days at a reduced tariff rate, aiming to pull down record prices.

Prices keep climbing anyway

Ground beef got more expensive again in August, pushed up by tight supply and demand that refuses to cool for the country's staple meat.

A sector already bleeding

Ranchers are absorbing higher energy and fertilizer costs, constant trade whiplash, and deep cuts at the Department of Agriculture.

Gut punch, says the lobby

The American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest agricultural lobby in the country, condemned the import decision in blunt terms.

“a gut punch to ranchers' bottom line”

Republicans break ranks

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters that subsidized beef will not lower prices in any lasting way, and that the party has nothing good to offer farmers right now.

“We've got 71 days, and right now we don't have a positive message to tell farm country.”

Patience has a limit

Cornell agricultural economist Christopher Barrett warned that farmers absorb a lot before they push back, but the tolerance is not endless.

“there's only so much they can take before they revolt”

A 75-year low in cattle

The real driver of high prices is scarcity. The US herd has shrunk to its smallest size in 75 years as costs and climate pressure squeezed producers.

Selling beats breeding

When input costs spike, a rancher makes more money selling animals than keeping them to reproduce. Every sale shrinks tomorrow's supply.

Herds take a decade

High prices normally pull producers into rebuilding, but the cattle cycle runs about 10 years and a cow bears one calf at a time. There is no fast fix.

A parasite and a closed border

New World screwworm infected cattle in the US and Mexico, which usually supplies about 3 percent of US cattle. The border closed last year, with one Arizona crossing reopened in August.

Drought burned the grass

Nearly three-quarters of the US cattle herd sat under drought conditions this spring, and wildfires took more grazing land out of use.

Two percent of the problem

Economist Elliott Dennis pegs the import volume at roughly 2 to 3 percent of total consumption. Joe Glauber, a former USDA chief economist, expects any relief to be brief.

“The longer-term issue is the structural one, with the beef herd.”

Mixed signals to producers

Washington wants bigger herds and cheaper beef at once. Ranchers cannot tell whether the import push is temporary or the new normal, so they hesitate to invest.

“Is this temporary? Is this full-time? Should we rebuild? Should we not rebuild?”

The mystery meat fear

American beef sells abroad on its quality reputation. After the recent cyclospora outbreak, producers worry imported product of unknown origin could poison trust in their own.

“you wind up getting contaminated product that comes from outside the system, but it hurts the confidence of consumers in product generated within the system”

Damage control, and doubts

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins launched a Ranchers First Initiative, plus orders on country-of-origin labeling and meatpacking competition. The Farm Bureau still wants the imports reversed.

“We'll continue to urge the administration to reverse the decision to increase imports before cattle prices fall further”