From Foreign Policy · Derek Grossman · · 2m
Trump's Diego Garcia Deal Backfires
Trump's reversal on Diego Garcia treaty sparks China and Russia to exploit U.S. military weakness.
In brief
Trump's reversal on Diego Garcia treaty sparks China and Russia to exploit U.S. military weakness. Trump's abrupt opposition to the Chagos Islands treaty with Mauritius undermines U.S. military strategy in the Indian Ocean, angering China and Russia while deepening divisions among Chagossians. Originally reported by…
Diego Garcia's Strategic Importance
Diego Garcia, a British-administered atoll in the central Indian Ocean, is claimed by Mauritius and hosts a key U.S.-British military base.
Treaty Agreement Details
London and Port Louis agreed in 2024 to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, formalizing the deal in May 2025 under a 99-year lease with a 40-year extension option.
Trump's Initial Support
In May 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised the treaty as securing the long-term operation of the Diego Garcia military facility with Trump's personal endorsement.
Trump's Sudden Reversal
On Jan. 20, 2026, Trump criticized Britain's move as 'GREAT STUPIDITY', claiming China and Russia exploited U.S. military weakness.
“There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness.”
Two Triggers for Reversal
Trump was angered by Britain's defense of Danish sovereignty over Greenland and Kemi Badenoch's objections to the Chagos agreement with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson.
U.S. State Department's Support
The State Department reiterated support for the treaty in February 2026, but Trump publicly urged Prime Minister Starmer to abandon it the next day.
“DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA”
Tehran's Missile Test
Tehran fired two ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia in March 2026, though neither struck the island.
Chagossian Divisions
Some Chagossians welcome Trump's holdup of the treaty due to distrust of Mauritius, while others believe he blocks unification.
India's Position
India welcomed the original treaty as a 'milestone achievement' for decolonization but fears weakened U.S. military presence on Diego Garcia.
China's Strategic Move
China criticized the treaty as 'hegemonic mentality' and reaffirmed support for Mauritian sovereignty over Diego Garcia.
“hegemonic mentality”
Treaty's Military Implications
The treaty prohibits other military forces without British approval, but concerns persist about China accessing Diego Garcia through civilian facilities.
Consequence for U.S. Strategy
Trump's actions have scored an own goal by reinforcing China's narrative that Washington disregards smaller states' sovereignty.
What to remember
Trump's abrupt opposition to the Chagos Islands treaty with Mauritius undermines U.S. military strategy in the Indian Ocean, angering China and Russia while deepening divisions among Chagossians.
