From Foreign Policy · Keith Johnson · · 2m
Trump’s Diesel Deal Has No Winners
Trump’s diesel deal won’t lower prices, help Ukraine, or boost Moscow’s war budget.
In brief
Trump’s diesel deal won’t lower prices, help Ukraine, or boost Moscow’s war budget. Trump’s suspension of Russian diesel sanctions won’t reduce fuel prices, aid Ukraine, or provide Moscow with financial gains. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Trump suspends Russian diesel sanctions
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration suspended sanctions on Russian diesel exports, but faces legal challenges from lawmakers.
2022 sanctions ban on Russian oil
Congress banned U.S. imports of Russian fossil fuels after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Trump’s waiver faces opposition
A dozen bipartisan senators wrote to Trump demanding the deal be rescinded, calling it a gift to Russia and betrayal of allies.
Energy ceasefire demand
Trump paired sanctions relief with a demand for an energy ceasefire from both Moscow and Kyiv.
Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have damaged Russian refineries, reducing diesel production by 30% over the past year.
Russia’s refining capacity
Russia’s oil refining capacity has dropped from 5.5 million barrels a day to 4 million barrels a day, a 20-year low.
Zelensky’s pause on strikes
Ukrainian President Zelensky stopped new strikes on Russian oil facilities since October 10 after Trump’s deal.
SpaceX service disruption
Ukraine lost SpaceX’s military-grade Starlink internet service, affecting defense against Russian drones and missiles.
Russia’s diesel export volumes
Russia’s diesel exports fell from 3 million tons a month in spring to 325,000 tons a month in September.
Winter export potential
Russia could export up to 1 million tons of diesel monthly in winter after harvest season ends.
Diesel price impact
U.S. diesel prices remain at $6.30 a gallon, near record highs, with no price drop from Trump’s deal.
Market impact
300,000, 500,000 tons of Russian diesel won’t move global prices in a market of 120 million tons a month.
Iranian attacks on shipping
Iran escalated attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil shipments and causing a global diesel shortage.
Global diesel crisis
The global diesel market remains tight until 2027, with oil prices rising to over $106 a barrel.
The takeaway
Trump’s suspension of Russian diesel sanctions won’t reduce fuel prices, aid Ukraine, or provide Moscow with financial gains.
