From Foreign Policy · Jason Bordoff, Bob McNally · · 1m 20s
Trump’s Diesel Export Ban Backfires
Banning diesel exports would raise prices, hurt U.S. energy dominance, and boost China’s leverage.
In brief
Banning diesel exports would raise prices, hurt U.S. energy dominance, and boost China’s leverage. Trump’s proposed diesel export ban would backfire by raising prices, discouraging investment, and undermining U.S. energy dominance. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Diesel prices surge
Diesel prices hit record highs of over $6.50 per gallon.
U.S. diesel exports rise
U.S. diesel exports reach record levels to fill global shortages.
Iran war disrupts supply
Iranian attacks cut Middle East diesel exports by 25 percent since last year.
Russia reduces exports
Russia cuts diesel exports to conserve fuel and imports to meet domestic demand.
U.S. strategic reserves
U.S. and allies release record volumes from strategic reserves but mostly crude oil.
Trump proposes ban
Trump endorses diesel export ban to lower prices temporarily.
Short-term price drop
Local prices dip briefly but refiners cut output quickly.
Long-term price rise
Export ban raises prices long-term by discouraging investment in supply.
U.S. energy dominance weakens
Banning exports undermines U.S. energy dominance agenda.
China gains leverage
China benefits as countries seek alternatives to U.S. diesel.
Historical failure
1970s export bans backfired, lowering production and raising prices.
What happens next
Trump should learn from history and avoid export ban.
The big picture
Trump’s proposed diesel export ban would backfire by raising prices, discouraging investment, and undermining U.S. energy dominance.
