Trump Administration Dealmaking

The Trump administration has signed a new trade agreement with Jordan, granted UAE access to advanced AI chips, lifted sanctions on Syria, approved F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia, approved arms for Israel, and signed a…

Rivalry Among Partners

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are openly competing for regional leadership in economics and technology, while Israel and Turkey have grown increasingly antagonistic over Syria.

Regional Arms Race Risk

U.S. deals could fuel a regional arms race and erode Israel's qualitative military edge, a cornerstone of U.S. defense policy.

AI Duplication

Saudi Arabia and UAE are building competing national AI stacks using the same U.S. technology, creating duplication rather than synergy.

U.S. Policy Risk

Washington lacks a strategy to weigh its deals against one another, risking its own policy goals in the region.

Historical Context

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel was within reach before Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack but is now frozen.

Mecca Defense Pact

Saudi Arabia has joined Pakistan and Turkey in the Mecca defense pact, signaling growing cooperation with regional rivals.

U.S. Ambassadors' View

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack stated, 'America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there. We don’t have a playbook.'

“America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there. …We don’t have a playbook. We’re all on audibles. We can go one play at a time.”

U.S. Policy Recommendations

The White House should establish a review process for multistakeholder deals to assess regional impacts before finalizing agreements.

Economic Diplomacy Group

The U.S. Economic Diplomacy Action Group, chaired by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, coordinates commercial diplomacy across federal agencies.

Pax Silica Initiative

The UAE, Qatar, and Israel are members of Pax Silica, an initiative to build AI infrastructure and supply chains.

Incentivizing Cooperation

U.S. economic deals could be tied to deconfliction in Syria with Israel or investment in Syria’s reconstruction.

Strategic Coherence

An ambassador-level regional coordinator is needed to ensure deals add up to more than the sum of their parts.

Conclusion

Trump's Middle East deals risk deepening rivalries that undermine U.S. security interests, requiring strategic coherence to avoid unintended consequences.