From Foreign Policy · David E. Rosenberg · · 2m
What if No One Wins the Israeli Election?
Netanyahu's election gamble risks war to stay in power as Israel's vote may not decide its future.
In brief
Netanyahu's election gamble risks war to stay in power as Israel's vote may not decide its future. Israel's election could result in a minority government led by Eisenkot that reverses Netanyahu's judicial overhaul but faces challenges from settlers and ultra-Orthodox. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Israeli election stakes
This election could decide whether Israel continues down the path of illiberalism, insularity, and aggressive military policies or returns to liberal values and mends international ties.
Netanyahu's seat count
Netanyahu's religious and far-right allies would capture no more than 49 seats, according to the latest polls.
Opposition seat count
The opposition parties united to remove Netanyahu would win no more than 54 seats, far from the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority.
Arab-led parties
Two Arab-led parties could theoretically provide the anti-Netanyahu bloc with the margin to govern, but several members have ruled out including them in a future government.
Polling reliability
Israeli polls have a poor record predicting outcomes due to right-wing distrust of pollsters and potential for large voter turnout shifts.
Netanyahu's tactics
Netanyahu may resort to extreme tactics to remain in power, including starting a war before the election or creating chaos at polling places.
Netanyahu's influence
Netanyahu reportedly urged Trump to resume attacks on Iran before the election, though his office denies he did so.
Eisenkot's government
If the anti-Netanyahu bloc falls short of 61 seats, Eisenkot would form a minority government with Arab-led parties providing a parliamentary safety net.
Eisenkot's agenda
An Eisenkot government would reverse Netanyahu's judicial overhaul, form a state commission into the Oct. 7 attack, and bar criminal suspects from holding prime ministerial office.
Settler challenges
Extremist settlers would likely continue anti-palestinian violence even without government backing, supported by many Israeli soldiers.
Haredi challenges
Ultra-Orthodox groups would resist drafting young men into the army, with their anger growing as the army arrests draft-dodgers.
Netanyahu's response
Netanyahu would likely launch scorched-earth policies targeting potential coalition defectors if he stays as Likud leader.
Likely outcome
Israel may face political limbo with a minority government that reverses some policies but struggles with settler and ultra-Orthodox challenges.
Interim government
If Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker government, the Knesset could pass legislation to roll back problematic laws.
Final consequence
Israel would face political limbo, divided and directionless as it deals with security threats and international isolation.
The essence
Israel's election could result in a minority government led by Eisenkot that reverses Netanyahu's judicial overhaul but faces challenges from settlers and ultra-Orthodox.
