Houthis seize control of Red Sea

On September 8, the Houthis launched a major offensive, capturing the port of Mokha, most of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, and key islands. They now control the Bab el-Mandeb, a critical maritime chokepoint for global trade.

This threatens Saudi Arabia's oil route

Saudi Arabia had redirected oil shipments through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi offensive, combined with drone strikes on the pipeline, has closed this outlet.

Global trade and Egypt face pressure

The Bab el-Mandeb connects to the Suez Canal, which links Asia to the West and generates crucial toll revenues for Egypt. Closure of this route would devastate the global economy and Egypt's already struggling finances.

But Yemen's war has deeper roots

Saudi Arabia triggered the latest fighting in July by bombing Sanaa's airport. But the real driver is Saudi-Emirati rivalry. In December, Saudi forces pushed Emirati-aligned forces out of Yemen, viewing them as part of a broader Emirati secessionist campaign.

Saudi Arabia fears Israeli encirclement

Riyadh was particularly concerned about potential Emirati support for Israel's recognition of breakaway Somaliland. A strategic Israeli foothold on the other side of the Bab el-Mandeb, especially with Emirati backing, struck Saudi Arabia as a major threat.

Saudi strategy is failing on the ground

Despite pouring in cash and pledging air cover, Saudi-backed forces are crumbling. Reporting suggests as many as 80 percent are ghost fighters drawing salaries. Houthi communications are compromised and promised air support largely failed to materialize.

Rumors of UAE sabotage swirl

Arab social media is rife with speculation that the UAE is covertly activating its former allies to undermine government forces. This would be payback for Saudi Arabia's December humiliation and support for Israel's concerns about the new Saudi-led coalition.

Houthis fear Israeli-Emirati expansion

The Houthis are responding not just to Iranian strategy but to the threat of Israeli and Emirati forces establishing a foothold across the strait. This could turbocharge Houthi ties with Somalia-based al-Shabab and expand the war into the Horn of Africa.

Egypt is caught in the middle

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi faces devastating economic consequences if the Bab el-Mandeb closes. He also struggles with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt can no longer count on financial support from both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Pakistan and Turkey stay on sidelines

Saudi Arabia hoped its new Mecca Pact allies Pakistan and Turkey would help against the Houthis. Both countries offered only moral support. Pakistan clarified its alliance commitments only extended to new conflicts, not existing ones.

Algeria breaks with the UAE

The same week as the Houthi offensive, Algeria severed diplomatic relations with the UAE and closed its airspace to Emirati planes. The move responded to surging Emirati activities across the Sahel and support for Moroccan claims to Western Sahara.

UAE backs Morocco against Algeria

Algeria accuses the UAE of expanding influence in Chad, Mali, and Niger through the Abraham Accords. The UAE supports Morocco's push to increase influence at Algeria's expense, and Algerian media claims the UAE tried to manipulate its 2019 presidential election.

UAE backs brutal forces across Africa

Algeria also blames the UAE for supporting the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army. The RSF is credibly accused of massive war crimes, drawing growing international and regional condemnation of Emirati backing.

Eritrea joins the anti-UAE chorus

Days after Algeria's diplomatic moves, Eritrea accused the UAE of port imperialism in collaboration with Israel. Like the Houthis, Eritrea watches Emirati expansion in the Horn of Africa and Israeli support for Somaliland with deep concern.

“port imperialism”

The map is bigger than Washington thinks

Countries across North and East Africa are advancing their own alliances and interests in ways that refuse to follow traditional Middle Eastern politics. The conflict spans from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, reshaping regional order.

Three-way competition replaces bipolar order

Regional politics are no longer a simple Iran-versus-the-West struggle. The Saudi-Emirati conflict, rooted in disagreement over Israel's place in the regional order, has created a three-way competition unfolding across regional boundaries.

Houthi gains may not last forever

Yemen has a long history of sudden surges and reversals in its internal war. A new status quo may eventually emerge that avoids worst-case scenarios. But the bigger lesson is that regional politics have fundamentally shifted.