Miller's model shows Democratic surge

Data scientist Thomas Miller's site Virtualtout.io gave Democrats a ninety percent chance of winning at least fifty-one Senate seats as of Monday morning.Republican odds collapsed from twenty-three percent on October twenty-sixth to under ten percent.

Kansas and Iowa shift Democratic

Democrats now lead in longtime Republican stronghold Kansas and have turned Iowa into a virtual toss-up. These Midwestern swings signal the strength of the blue wave across the region.

Miller's track record of accuracy

Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, correctly forecast that Democrats would sweep the two Georgia Senate runoffs in early two thousand twenty-one when polls and pundits predicted Republican wins.

How Miller's model works

Miller incorporates prices from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, then deploys multiple time series examining ten to twelve underlying factors driving those markets.

Trump has nationalized the Senate race

Miller told Fortune that all underlying factors relate to voters' perception of Trump administration performance. Affordability, the economy and the war in Iran motivate voters across states, which do not move independently of one another.

“They all relate to voters' perception of the performance of the Trump administration. That's the thread running through all the races.”

Trump's campaign efforts show no gain

Miller said Trump's tireless stumping impact is harder to assess because voters expect certain things from him.Most of what the president says simply reinforces existing views.There is no evidence his appearances are helping Republicans.

“Still, there's no evidence he's helping. It doesn't appear that his appearances are a positive.”

Republican collapse across key races

In five elections where Democrats have long harbored flip chances, Republicans stand below thirty percent in all of them.

Kansas and Iowa show dramatic shifts

In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall dropped from around seventy-five percent in early September to forty-three point nine percent, suffering a seven point one percent drop in just twenty-four hours.