Washington's decade-long pivot

For ten years, the U.S. urged manufacturers to move factories out of China into friendly Southeast Asian states. Now it is attacking those same countries and companies.

Trump's tariffs backfire

Broad-based import taxes have jolted manufacturers across ASEAN, including American ones. The policy is having the reverse of its intended effect on U.S. economic interests.

A reverse pivot in Asia

Rather than checking China, trade policy is alienating regional partners, harming supply-chain diversification, and eroding America's influence. Evan Feigenbaum, a veteran diplomat and former Republican, terms this a reverse pivot.

“reverse pivot”

From coercion to workarounds

After Trump's April 2025 Liberation Day tariffs, some ASEAN non-tariff barriers fell and deals were done.In February the Supreme Court struck down much of the initial tariff regime.

Punishing the wrong partners

America's labor, intellectual property, and excess-capacity concerns are really about China, not Southeast Asia. By treating regional partners as collateral damage, Washington is undercutting its most reliable partners and allies.

Undermining China plus one

For nearly a decade, multinationals redirected capital and manufacturing from China into Vietnam, Malaysia, India, and the Philippines through China plus one strategies.

Tariffs fail to achieve goals

Higher costs and a shortage of skilled domestic labor mean production lines will not shift to U.S.shores.Bilateral trade deficits with Southeast Asian economies remain largely unchanged.Regional exporters, U.S.importers, and consumers are simply absorbing higher costs.

ASEAN hedges elsewhere

ASEAN nations have long balanced China against the United States through dynamic hedging.Yet as U.S.policy grows increasingly erratic and punitive, it inadvertently pushes them to hedge elsewhere.

Asia writes the digital future

Since America pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, ASEAN is building institutional networks that bypass Washington.