From Fortune · Angelica Ang · · 2m
Vietnam's FTSE upgrade lifts banks, not exporters
Vietnam joins emerging markets, but foreign capital will flow to financial firms, not the manufacturers driving its economy.
In brief
Vietnam joins emerging markets, but foreign capital will flow to financial firms, not the manufacturers driving its economy. Vietnam's September twenty-first FTSE emerging market upgrade could channel six billion dollars to Vietnamese companies, but most will go to banks rather than the export manufacturers that drive…
Vietnam reaches emerging market status
On September twenty-first, Vietnamese stocks entered FTSE Russell's emerging market ranks, capping a years-long effort by the Southeast Asian country to meet the index provider's criteria.
What the upgrade means
Anh Tran, a finance professor at Bayes Business School at City St George's, University of London, says the upgrade serves as external validation of Vietnam's economic development and financial market reforms.
“Vietnam's upgrade to emerging market status is an important milestone.”
Six billion dollars could flow in
The upgrade puts Vietnam alongside Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines as FTSE emerging markets. Investors use FTSE benchmarks to guide decisions, and the upgrade could channel six billion dollars in capital from foreign investors to Vietnamese companies.
The mismatch problem
Vietnam reported eight point two percent growth in the first half of twenty twenty-six, primarily from export-oriented sectors like electronics and metals. Yet fifteen of the twenty-seven companies added to FTSE's index are banks or securities firms, not manufacturers.
“Index money follows the rules of the index, not the shape of the economy.”
Limited access to top index
Only six of the twenty-seven companies were added to the FTSE All-World Index, one of the most widely-tracked indices: Vietcombank, Vingroup, Vinhomes, BIDV, VP Bank and Hoa Phat. Ownership caps and thin free float limit how much foreigners can buy.
Market stumbles on upgrade day
The VN-Index, Vietnam's benchmark index, dropped zero point nine percent on September twenty-first, and trading turnover on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange plunged thirty-three percent from the previous Friday.
What Vietnam must do next
Experts say Vietnam needs to improve market infrastructure, transparency, corporate reporting in English, and clearing frameworks aligned with international standards. MSCI still classifies Vietnam as frontier market, citing continued foreign ownership limits.
“The FTSE is a crucial psychological and operational stepping stone, but an MSCI upgrade would require a separate, heavier set of institutional reforms.”
The essence
Vietnam's September twenty-first FTSE emerging market upgrade could channel six billion dollars to Vietnamese companies, but most will go to banks rather than the export manufacturers that drive growth.
