Three years of false alarms

Since ChatGPT launched in late twenty twenty-two, Wall Street has repeatedly predicted an AI bust. Nvidia's trillion-dollar milestones, hyperscaler debt, DeepSeek's emergence, and Sam Altman's bubble admission all triggered selloffs. Stocks rebounded each time.

CoreWeave's debt crisis sparks new fears

Neoclould computing firm CoreWeave saw its stock tumble and credit default swaps surge recently. The selloff centers on whether trillions in AI spending will generate sufficient returns to justify the debt taken on.

Strategist questions the pattern

Dan Greenhaus at Solus Alternative Asset Management told CNBC that CoreWeave may not signal an imminent bust. He asked how many false alarms Wall Street has sounded before the market made new highs.

“How many canaries have we killed in the coal mine over the last three years?”

Rising rates squeeze riskier bets

Borrowing costs have jumped as the Iran war and oil prices sent bond yields to the highest levels in more than twenty years.

Gartner's trillion-dollar gap

Gartner warned that AI data center owners need to generate a cumulative eight point five trillion dollars in revenue through twenty thirty to cover capital spending, financing costs, and a twelve percent return.

Over four trillion at write-down risk

The gap between required and projected revenue leaves more than four trillion dollars in asset value exposed to write-down risk through twenty thirty-two. This shortfall could force companies to reassess their spending plans.

Classic capital cycle pattern emerges

Bank of America analysts said the AI investment boom follows a classic capital cycle that usually ends in disappointment.Early high margins drive overinvestment and excess capacity.

Monetization failure looms

Higher token volumes are failing to offset lower token prices. Bank of America warned that this monetization disappointment amid intense competition mirrors the failure mode seen in past capital cycles, suggesting the AI boom may…