War didn't break oil markets

When Trump launched his Iran war in late February, analysts warned oil could more than double. Six months in, prices remain volatile but worst-case scenarios haven't materialized.

Xi's energy strategy is the reason

Chinese President Xi Jinping, visiting Washington next week, could credibly argue the world has China's energy strategy to thank for keeping oil prices from spiking catastrophically.

America is free-riding on Beijing

China cut crude imports dramatically to protect itself from economic damage, but the move also eased global demand and softened price effects for the U.S., Europe and beyond.

“"We've been free-riding off Beijing in a weird way," said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities.”

China built the world's largest reserve

Beijing spent years and billions amassing 1.4 billion barrels of oil by the end of last year, making energy self-reliance a cornerstone of its latest five-year plan.

Imports dropped 32 percent

As the U.S. and Israel began bombardment and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, China cut crude imports from 12.3 million barrels per day to 8.1 million in the second quarter.

Electric vehicles helped too

China's shift toward electric vehicles in recent years and tapping into other energy alternatives also reduced its need for crude oil during the conflict.

Current prices hover near $100

Brent crude averaged $69 per barrel last year and currently hovers around $100, having briefly peaked at $126 in late April.

Prices could still spike sharply

Bank of America forecasts $83 per barrel for the second half of 2026, but warns that escalating violence could push prices to $95-$120, or even $150 if major energy infrastructure is damaged.

Red Sea attacks threaten stability

Iran-backed militias attacked a Saudi pipeline this month, and Houthis seized strategic Red Sea islands, threatening to disrupt shipping and test China's remaining reserves.

Trump and Xi have deep disagreements

The Trump administration has urged China to use economic leverage against Iran, but Beijing opposes the U.S. war and bristles at threats to pressure nations doing business with Tehran.

China acted from self-interest

Analysts say Beijing built its massive stockpile primarily for contingency planning around Taiwan, not altruism. Using reserves now has been far from ideal, but skyrocketing oil prices would have hurt China worse.

Trump downplays China's contribution

The White House hasn't credited China with moderating prices. Trump claimed early on that dire projections were wrong, without acknowledging Beijing's import cuts as the reason.