From IGN · Sab Astley · · 3m
How Live-Service Turned Gaming Into a Bloody Battle Royale
Live-service games now face a brutal race for the top spot, with losing developers risking ruin.
In brief
Live-service games now face a brutal race for the top spot, with losing developers risking ruin. Live-service games create a winner-takes-all market where second place is almost worthless due to intense competition and rapid market saturation. Originally reported by IGN.
Battle Royale Origins
Minecraft Survival Games launched in April 2012, inspired by The Hunger Games, creating a last-player-standing format.
“The concept followed the rules outlined in Katniss’ harrowing ordeal: dozens of players would sprint into the middle of a starting circle, gather supplies, and then hunt until the last one standing.”
Brendan Greene's Innovation
Brendan Greene developed PlayerUnknown's Battle Royale in 2013, inspired by the 2000 film Battle Royale, not The Hunger Games.
“Brendan Greene had an idea for a DayZ mod (the zombie survival game that was itself a mod of mil-sim ARMA, and was already responsible for whipping the survival genre into a frenzy on PC).”
Fortnite's Battle Royale Pivot
Fortnite launched as a tower defense game in 2017 but pivoted to battle royale in 2017, becoming free-to-play and reaching 650 million players.
“By September, the mode was released. It was barebones, practically ramshackle, with minimal assets and a bizarre application of the building systems from the original fort-crafting mode.”
Market Growth and Challenges
The battle royale market was valued at $11.2 billion in 2025 and expected to reach $30 billion by 2035, but few studios survive the competition.
“Everyone’s chasing the money and almost all of them are discovering just how difficult it is to carve out their own piece of the pie, even heavyweights like Halo Studios and monied companies like Amazon Games have failed miserably.”
The Battle Royale Arms Race
Nearly 2,000 games have been assigned the 'battle royale' tag on Steam, with hundreds more in mobile gaming, creating intense competition.
“When you have a game that made $9 billion within two years and likely over $20 billion by now, it’s clear to see why so many publishers have tried to replicate its formula.”
Overwatch's Success and Challenges
Overwatch launched with 7 million players in its first week, reaching 30 million by its first year, but faced internal challenges and leadership changes.
“Seven million people played Overwatch in its first week, entranced by its smart melding of heroes and abilities with FPS arena action.”
The Failure of Second Place
Number one controls so much of the attention that it’s almost not worth being number two in the live-service market.
“Number one [in sales/player count] controls so much of the attention in a space that it’s almost not worth being number two, let alone five or six”
Anthem's Short Lifespan
BioWare's Anthem launched in February 2019 with over $100 million in digital revenue but became unplayable by 2021 due to poor design and technical issues.
“Anthem launched in February 2019 to poor review scores and significant technical issues, an unsurprising result given the game was essentially redeveloped within a year.”
Concord's Rapid Decline
Sony and Firewalk Studios' Concord began development in 2016 but released in 2024 with a $400 million budget, failing to compete with Overwatch's legacy.
“Concord began development in 2016, the same year Overwatch released. Had it released in 2019, or even 2020, perhaps it may have found its audience.”
The Inverted Pyramid
The gaming industry's pyramid of creativity has been inverted, with live-service games prioritizing profit over innovation and player experience.
“They’re art, then entertainment, then business. If something’s not entertaining, there’s no business there. It fails.”
Market Decline and Future
Battle royale sub-genre saw a 27% decline in popularity, but live-service games remain profitable despite market saturation.
“One of gaming market research company NewZoo’s latest reports showed a 27% decline in the battle royale sub-genre, with Fortnite and Apex Legends both suffering nearly a quarter drop in playtime growth themselves.”
The Cost of Innovation
Developers face a high barrier to entry in live-service games, with many failing to innovate and instead chasing the same trends as successful competitors.
“The realization that this type of game was a lottery ticket that could pay off really big shifted our industry around so much.”
The Future of Live-Service
The gaming industry must realign its pyramid before live-service games become a permanent market failure.
“The pyramid has become inverted. And so the big question is: can it be realigned before it's too late?”
The Battle for the Throne
Live-service games create a winner-takes-all market where losing developers risk ruin due to intense competition and rapid market saturation.
“Number one controls so much of the attention that it’s almost not worth being number two.”
The Inverted Pyramid
The gaming industry's pyramid of creativity has been inverted, with live-service games prioritizing profit over innovation and player experience.
“They’re art, then entertainment, then business. If something’s not entertaining, there’s no business there. It fails.”
The Cost of Innovation
Developers face a high barrier to entry in live-service games, with many failing to innovate and instead chasing the same trends as successful competitors.
“The realization that this type of game was a lottery ticket that could pay off really big shifted our industry around so much.”
The headline
Live-service games create a winner-takes-all market where second place is almost worthless due to intense competition and rapid market saturation.
