Fed week starts Tuesday

The FOMC meets September 15 to 16 and announces its decision Wednesday at 2 pm Eastern. It is the sixth of eight meetings scheduled for 2026.

A hike is the base case

With the labor market steady and energy costs pushing inflation up, markets widely expect the first increase in the federal funds rate since 2023.

Warsh is boxed in

The data, the market and several of his own colleagues all point toward a hike. The open question is whether the new chair votes with them.

“Fed Chair Kevin Warsh finds himself caught between a rock and a hard place heading into this week's FOMC meeting”

July already split three ways

The Fed held rates in July over three dissents. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all wanted a quarter-point increase.

One number he can lean on

Core CPI cooled to 2.4% year over year in August from 2.5% in July. Warsh has said the Fed should watch trends, not single prints, so that cooling is his argument to wait.

“this could be his one last line of defense”

Inflation still runs hot

August CPI and PPI both came in well above the Fed's 2% target, while the jobs report calmed fears that hiring was falling apart.

Stocks slide into the meeting

Monday was red across the board. The Nasdaq fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.6% and the Dow 0.4%, led down by AI-linked names like Nvidia, AMD and Vertiv.

Oil is the bigger story

War in Iran pushed WTI crude up 3.2% to $103.29 a barrel, a 20% gain for the month. Surging energy plus elevated bond yields make for an ugly backdrop.

“Oil is once again the biggest geopolitical story.”