Inflation data releases

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.4% year over year.

Core PCE inflation

Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.

Economist analysis

Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, says PCE inflation remains hot despite methodological revisions.

“Even after major methodological revisions, PCE inflation is still running hot however you cut it”

Q4 economic outlook

Varghese notes the economy is running hot with policy easy, creating a tailwind for stocks through Q4.

“The economy is running hot, policy remains easy, and the Fed's challenge is figuring out how much restraint is needed”

September market performance

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,651, ending September down 0.2% against historical average of 1.1% loss.

Election season tailwind

Mark Hackett says the month before and five following midterms offer best six-month stretch with 14% average gain.

“The month before and the five following the midterm election being the best six-month stretch on the four-year election calendar, averaging a 14% gain during midterm years”

September jobs report

Wall Street expects 84,000 new jobs in September, down from August's 162,000 but still healthy.

ADP payroll data

ADP reported private payrolls rose 90,000 in September, exceeding economists' forecast of 68,000.

Moderna stock drop

Moderna shares fell 5.4% after Citi downgraded the stock to Sell following its 'outsized run'.

“Moderna shares slumped 5.4% after Citi slapped the red-hot drugmaker with a new Sell rating”