Peru taps global markets as Argentina stays locked out

Peru raises four point five billion dollars

Peru issued two bonds maturing in twelve and thirty years to finance infrastructure, climate adaptation and social programmes. The government announced the sale on November ten, twenty twenty-six.

Strong demand cuts borrowing costs

Peru received purchase offers exceeding twenty one billion dollars, allowing it to secure funds at rates of six point zero six and six point four five percent annually for each maturity.

Spreads tighten dramatically

Initial offer spreads of one hundred sixty basis points on both maturities fell to forty two points for the twelve year bond and forty points for the thirty year bond.

Negative premium on shorter maturity

Finance Minister Elmer Cuba said the tighter spreads meant a negative new issuance premium for the twelve year tranche and no premium for the thirty year tranche.

“Esto significó una prima de nueva emisión negativa (12 años) y sin prima (30 años)”

Emerging market appetite remains strong

The issuance confirms global appetite for emerging market debt persists despite international volatility from commodity price swings and uncertainty over interest rate movements.

Argentina locked out of markets

Argentina remains financially isolated despite reporting fiscal, trade and current account surpluses and recovering reserves, forcing the government to reformulate its financing programme.

Argentina loses local market access

Argentina had planned to raise five billion dollars through local placements in twenty twenty-seven but the local market for dollar bonds closed due to widening spreads between bonds maturing before and after the Milei administration…

Default risk climbs sharply

Credit default swap prices show Argentina's five year implicit default probability rose to fifty one percent from twenty nine percent in June, while ten year probability reached seventy three percent from fifty two percent.

Twenty twenty-seven elections drive uncertainty

Markets increasingly price in doubts about political support for Argentina's current economic course beyond October twenty twenty-seven, when presidential elections occur and major debt maturities arrive.

Peru extends debt maturity profile

Peru also launched an exchange offer for global bonds maturing in twenty twenty-seven, twenty thirty and twenty thirty-one, swapping them for new bonds expiring in twenty thirty-eight to strengthen its long term debt profile.