From Mlb · · 1m 30s
Skubal's 30s: History's clues for free agent
How Skubal's 30s performance might compare to baseball legends.
In brief
How Skubal's 30s performance might compare to baseball legends. Skubal could maintain elite pitching into his 30s like Maddux, Clemens or Verlander, but injuries and age remain key risks. Originally reported by Mlb.
Skubal's elite run
Skubal has two Cy Young Awards, a 2.42 ERA, 171 ERA+ and 655 strikeouts over 546 innings since 2024.
Historical comparison group
11 pitchers compared to Skubal: 7 with 30s success, 3 with 30s decline, 1 with injury setbacks.
Dream cases: Longevity
Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and Justin Verlander pitched into their 40s with elite performance.
Good cases: Moments of excellence
Clayton Kershaw and Pedro Martinez had strong 30s performances despite eventual decline.
Complicated cases: Injuries
Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole showed resilience but faced injury interruptions in their 30s.
Disappointing cases: Early exits
Adam Wainwright and Jake Arrieta had significant declines after their peak 30s seasons.
Worst cases: Career-ending injuries
Brandon Webb and Johan Santana were cut short by major injuries before their 30s ended.
Key risk: Injuries
Seven of 11 pitchers lost significant time to injuries during their first half of 30s.
Skubal's health history
Skubal underwent Tommy John surgery in college, flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and elbow procedure in 2026.
Best-case scenario
Skubal could match Maddux, Clemens or Verlander's longevity into his late 30s.
What happens next
Skubal's next contract success depends on his ability to stay on the mound through his 30s.
The headline
Skubal could maintain elite pitching into his 30s like Maddux, Clemens or Verlander, but injuries and age remain key risks.
