First matchup

The Yankees and Rays have never met in a postseason series before, though the Rays beat the Yankees in the 2020 AL Division Series.

“The official attendance was "zero".”

2020 ALDS context

All five games were played in San Diego’s Petco Park with zero official attendance.

“The official attendance was "zero".”

Tropicana Field

This weekend features the first fully rocking and renovated Tropicana Field before a fully rocking and rolling Yankee Stadium.

Catcher

Austin Wells had a poor season with a .186 average and 74 OPS+, but improved in the second half to be 24% better than average.

Rays' catcher edge

The Rays have mid-season acquisition Liam Hicks with a .801 OPS and Nick Fortes, while the Yankees avoid using backup Ali Sánchez.

First base

The Yankees use a platoon split of Luis García Jr. (vs. righties) and Paul Goldschmidt (vs. lefties), with Shane McClanahan injured.

First base comparison

García has a 125 OPS+ and Jonathan Aranda has a 121 OPS+, with the Yankees having better defense and a better righty platoon partner.

Second base

The Rays use both Richie Palacios and Ben Williamson, with Palacios hitting righties well (.748 OPS) and Williamson having a 74 OPS+.

Second base advantage

The Yankees have Jazz Chisholm Jr. with a better hitting track record and multiple platoon options including José Caballero and Anthony Volpe.

Shortstop

Yankees rookie George Lombard Jr. has a 92 OPS+, while Rays veteran Taylor Walls has a 71 OPS+ and a weak career record.

Shortstop decision

We take Taylor Walls as the shortstop with better defense despite Lombard Jr.'s fielding reputation.

Third base

Junior Caminero hit 42 homers and is likely to end up with a top-five MVP finish, while Ryan McMahon is not.

Left field

Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson is a contact hitter with elite speed, while Cody Bellinger is a well-rounded player with better defense.

Center field

Aaron Judge may be out, with Trent Grisham starting, though he had a hamstring injury and a .211 batting average.

Right field

Victor Mesa Jr. has a 127 OPS+ and won a mid-September Player of the Week Award, while Jones has a 105 OPS+.

Designated hitter

Yandy Díaz hit 22 homers with a 124 OPS+ at 34 years old, making him a key part of the Tampa Bay offense.

Starting pitchers

The Yankees have the best starting pitching ERA, with Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón as likely starters.

Relief pitchers

Both teams have strong bullpens with similar performance, though the Yankees added more Win Probability in the second half.

Prediction

The Rays win the series in five games, with one game where their chaos gets them a win they may not have otherwise claimed.