From Mother Jones · Damian Carrington · · 2m
El Niño's heat will kill 451,000 by February
Climate scientists project a record-breaking El Niño will cause over 450,000 heat deaths globally in the next nine months.
In brief
Climate scientists project a record-breaking El Niño will cause over 450,000 heat deaths globally in the next nine months. A super El Niño is pushing temperatures to levels the climate crisis won't normally reach for 20 years, and scientists say we need emergency heat response systems now to save lives. Originally…
451,000 heat deaths projected
Climate scientists estimate a record-breaking El Niño will cause over 450,000 additional deaths from extreme heat by February 2027, striking across Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, and the United States.
“The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours.”
Record temperatures hit early
The current El Niño broke the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon several months before its expected peak, with scientists calling it mind-blowing and Godzilla-level.
Tropical nations hit hardest
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil face the worst impacts over the next six months. The US ranks in the top 20 affected nations with 3,500 projected additional heat deaths.
Forecasting deaths like crop shocks
Scientists used peer-reviewed methods tracking temperature and death patterns across 24,378 regions worldwide, combined with El Niño forecasts. This allows governments to target cooling centers and medical resources where they're needed most.
“This new report is opening the door to being able to forecast for the most important outcome, which is death.”
A preview of 2045
The El Niño is pushing temperatures to levels the climate crisis is projected to deliver in 20 years. Scientists warn we need permanent heat protection systems now, not emergency responses every time.
Food crisis compounds the toll
The World Food Programme warned El Niño will push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive prices up. A major El Niño in 1877 to 1878 caused over 50 million deaths from drought and famine.
Warming baseline makes it worse
El Niño events are natural, but global heating makes them more dangerous. Many places will experience never-before-seen heat extremes with cascading effects on health, food security, and water supplies.
“In many places around the world we will see never-before-experienced heat extremes, with all their consequences on health, food security and water stress.”
Act now to save lives
Better heat forecasts, cooling centers, increased medical staffing, and protections for outdoor workers can prevent many deaths this year. Scientists released the report early because waiting for peer review would have been irresponsible.
The takeaway
A super El Niño is pushing temperatures to levels the climate crisis won't normally reach for 20 years, and scientists say we need emergency heat response systems now to save lives.
