States control climate policy more than you think

When Democrats control a state's governor's office and both legislative chambers, they typically pass major climate and clean energy laws. Seven states have done this in recent years.

Democrats could win trifectas in multiple states

Democrats currently control 16 state trifectas while Republicans control 23. Democrats have momentum heading into 2026 with low Republican approval ratings and polling advantages on major issues.

Just 25 races could determine the outcome

Fewer than 25 legislative races out of more than 7,000 seats could determine whether Democrats gain five new trifectas or none at all. The results hinge on a handful of key states.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin are most likely to flip

These three northern states could shift from split control to Democratic trifectas. Michigan needs four House seats, Minnesota needs to break a House tie, and Wisconsin has new maps favoring Democrats.

Wisconsin has biggest climate opportunity

Wisconsin hasn't had a Democratic trifecta since 2010. The state has plentiful wind power but lags neighboring states in renewable energy and battery storage legislation.

Arizona and Pennsylvania are harder targets

Democrats have won governorships in both states but lack full legislative control. Arizona has narrow Republican majorities, while Pennsylvania Republicans have controlled the Senate since 1994.

“Those final couple of seats are really hard to flip.”

Arizona could unlock massive solar potential

Arizona is rich in solar power but has underachieved in harnessing this resource. Democratic control could open the door to more solar and battery projects.

Pennsylvania could diversify away from gas

Pennsylvania is a leading natural gas producer with a powerful fossil fuel lobby and low renewable energy development. Policy changes could enable more solar and battery projects.

Nevada governor's race is a toss-up

Democrat Aaron Ford is challenging Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who has incumbency advantage and polling leads. Democrats already control both legislative chambers.

Kansas likely to flip to Republicans

Kansas is the one state where Republicans are likely to win a new trifecta. Republican Ty Masterson leads Democrat Cindy Holscher in the governor's race.

Georgia, Texas, North Carolina unlikely for Democrats

These states fall short of being trifecta opportunities for Democrats. A historic Democratic wave could change this, but the probability is low.

Republicans could also gain ground in key states

If Republicans outperform expectations nationally, they could win new trifectas in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The election outcome remains uncertain.

Democrats poised to gain ground overall

At this point in the election season, Democrats are positioned to gain ground on Republicans. The main question is simply how much.