From Music Business Worldwide · · 1m 40s
Public Markets Price Quarters, Not Catalogs
Music markets value quarterly performance over catalog assets, driving consolidation.
In brief
Music markets value quarterly performance over catalog assets, driving consolidation. Public markets price music companies by quarterly performance, not catalog value, creating a consolidation wave. Originally reported by Music Business Worldwide.
Charles Johnson's Role
Charles "CJ" Johnson leads Truist Securities' entertainment investment banking.
Truist's Music Deals
Truist arranged Kobalt's $450 million credit facility and Litmus Music's $400 million upsizing.
2026 Market Activity
Three major music deals closed within 50 days in 2026: Sony's Recognition Music Group, BMG-Concord merger, and Primary Wave's Kobalt acquisition.
Catalog Valuation Shift
Iconic catalogs trade at 12-50% premiums over standard multiples, with deals breaking down on valuation mismatches.
Three Market Trends
By 2027, three majors plus BMG-Concord will control 75% of publishing; AI licensing emerges as revenue stream; growth shifts to emerging markets.
Iconic Catalogs Still Available
New music creates potential for iconic catalogs daily, sustaining investor interest in $5 million to $50 million deals.
AI Impact on Catalogs
AI training income favors large catalogs, while AI-generated content dilutes per-stream economics for less-differentiated content.
Public vs Private Valuation
Public markets price quarterly performance, while private buyers value iconic catalogs at higher multiples.
Catalog Decay Modeling
Buyers now assess catalog age and revenue stability over genre or artist name, with older catalogs commanding higher multiples.
Underestimated Opportunities
Royalty accounting firms and data analytics platforms attract private equity interest but are underestimated in the music ecosystem.
Key Change Request
Standardizing royalty reporting would narrow bid-ask spreads and benefit smaller sellers and independent songwriters.
The one thing
Public markets price music companies by quarterly performance, not catalog value, creating a consolidation wave.
