Democrats hit biggest lead yet

Democrats hold a 9-point advantage in the race for Congress, with 52 percent to Republicans' 43 percent among likely voters. This represents a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans.

Trump's approval hits 39 percent

Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39 percent with 59 percent disapproving, down from 50 percent when he took office. The decline is sharpest among independents, where he sits at just 26 percent approval.

Independents drive the shift

Independents preferred Democrats by 6 points at the start of Trump's term but now favor them by 16 points. The shift accelerated in fall 2025 and early 2026 as frustration grew over the economy, Iran policy, and immigration enforcement.

Economy and immigration fuel discontent

Approval of Trump's handling of inflation dropped from 40 percent in April 2025 to 32 percent by April 2026. Voters have specifically soured on his signature issues of the economy and border security.

Republicans remain solid with base

Republican approval of Trump has declined only slightly to 79 percent from the mid-to-high 80s. Partisans on both sides remain largely loyal to their parties in the congressional race.

What polling averages measure

NBC News polling averages combine national surveys using statistical weighting to measure changes in public opinion over time. They aim to provide the clearest aggregate measure of current polling, not predictions of election results.

“Averages are not predictions. Instead, they aim to provide the clearest possible aggregate measure of the current available polling.”

Five principles guide the averages

NBC News weights polls by recency, precision, stability, variety, and consistency. Newer polls matter more, precise polls get higher weight, outliers have limited influence, frequent pollsters are downweighted, and different voter populations are adjusted to the same scale.

Which polls make the cut

Polls must meet transparency standards by reporting field dates, sample size, and margin of error to be included. Surveys of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters are all eligible, including partisan polls that meet standards.

Why some polls count more

Older polls gradually lose weight as new surveys arrive. Polls with smaller sample sizes or larger margins of error contribute less than more precise surveys. This prevents any single pollster from dominating the average.

Different voter populations show variation

Polls of all adults show lower Trump approval than polls of registered or likely voters. Likely voters are more decided on the congressional ballot, so both parties score higher among that group.

Averages shift to likely voters

Both presidential and congressional averages adjust polls of adults and likely voters to the registered voter scale. After Labor Day, the congressional average shifts to show a likely voter baseline as Election Day approaches.

Republicans face electoral headwinds

Republicans hope to energize Trump's coalition and narrow the gap before Election Day. Many key House and Senate races are in districts and states Trump won in 2024 by double-digit margins, which could help Republicans.

Democrats' lead no guarantee of success

While Democrats' 9-point lead and strong showing among independents are encouraging signs, polling doesn't automatically translate to election results. Republicans have more than a month to close the gap before voters go to the polls.