From NBC News · Michael Morse · · 3m
Democrats ditch mail ballots over postal fears
Fewer Democrats are requesting mail ballots ahead of the midterms, but those who do are returning them faster, reshaping how early voting data will be read.
In brief
Fewer Democrats are requesting mail ballots ahead of the midterms, but those who do are returning them faster, reshaping how early voting data will be read. Democrats are requesting fewer mail ballots than in past elections but returning them more quickly, a shift driven by concerns about Postal Service reliability…
Democrats shift away from mail voting
Democrats are requesting fewer mail ballots than in past elections but returning the ones they do request more quickly, according to NBC News Decision Desk analysis.
Postal Service concerns drive the change
The shift reflects concerns about mail-in voting and doubts about the reliability of the U.S. Postal Service heading into the midterms, less than four weeks before Election Day.
Trump administration tightens postal rules
President Donald Trump's administration exerted increased control over the Postal Service, imposing new rules about how election officials could send ballots to voters.
Democratic confidence in postal delivery plummets
Confidence that the Postal Service would deliver mail ballots on time fell from eighty-six percent before the two thousand twenty-four election to sixty percent now among Democrats.
Analysis covers four key states
NBC News compared mail ballot request and return data at the same point in time across North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Pennsylvania to track the voting shift.
North Carolina shows steepest decline
In North Carolina, where voters apply for mail ballots in the months before each election, Democratic mail ballot requests are down forty percent compared to two thousand twenty-two.
Democrats returning ballots faster in North Carolina
Democratic registrants who requested mail ballots in North Carolina are more likely to have already returned them in two thousand twenty-six at twenty-two percent than in two thousand twenty-two at seventeen percent.
Georgia mirrors North Carolina pattern
Georgia shows the same pattern, with mail ballot requests down more in precincts that overwhelmingly supported Kamala Harris at fifty-two percent than in precincts supporting Donald Trump at thirty-nine percent.
Virginia's permanent list changes the picture
Virginia allows registrants to sign up for a permanent absentee mailing list, so there has been no drop-off in mail ballot requests compared to the last general election held in the state.
Virginia Democrats voting in person more
In Virginia's most Democratic precincts, more early in-person ballots are already cast in two thousand twenty-six compared to two thousand twenty-five, while Republican precincts show fewer.
Pennsylvania's high mail voting rate
Pennsylvania had the highest share of ballots cast by mail in the two thousand twenty-four presidential election at twenty-seven percent, versus Virginia at eleven percent and North Carolina and Georgia at five percent each.
Pennsylvania Democrats request fewer ballots after May
In Pennsylvania, fewer mail ballot requests from Democrats exist at this point in two thousand twenty-six than in two thousand twenty-two, with the decline concentrated after May.
Early vote data becomes harder to read
The shift in Democratic voting habits makes it difficult to use initial mail ballot data to gauge each party's likelihood of success or determine voter enthusiasm heading into Election Day.
Election night results could look different
If more Democrats vote in person or return mail ballots faster, the timing of when Democratic votes are reported and counted could change significantly on election night.
Analysts must recalibrate their benchmarks
What may seem to be Democratic over- or under-performance on election night could instead reflect the election landscape shifting, requiring caution when interpreting early voting data and results.
The big picture
Democrats are requesting fewer mail ballots than in past elections but returning them more quickly, a shift driven by concerns about Postal Service reliability that could complicate election night analysis.
