Latino voters reverse 2024 shift

An NBC News and Telemundo poll released Sunday shows Democrats leading among Latino registered voters by 24 points on a 2026 ballot test, a dramatic turnaround from 2024.

Economy is the driving factor

Latino voters rank cost of living as their top issue. Democrats now hold a 21-point advantage on economic handling, reversing Trump's 4-point edge in 2024 on the same question.

Trump voters defecting on economy

Almost a quarter of Latino Trump voters, 22 percent, say they will not back Republicans in the midterms. Of that group, 14 percent are choosing Democrats and 8 percent remain undecided.

Immigration remains visceral issue

While not their top-ranked issue, Latino voters hold strong views on Trump's immigration agenda. Two-thirds say his enforcement policies have gone too far.

Low approval on border security

Only 39 percent of Latino voters approve of Trump's handling of border security, and just 30 percent approve of his immigration policy overall.

ICE enforcement reshaping behavior

31 percent of Latino voters say they or someone close to them started carrying ID because of concerns about ICE enforcement operations since Trump's second term began.

Deportations and detentions rising

27 percent of Latino voters say they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE since Trump's second term began.

Gender and regional divides emerge

Latino women lean more Democratic than Latino men. Latino voters in Florida were less likely to back Democrats than Latino voters elsewhere, suggesting regional variation in 2026 swings.

Kaptur's trans rhetoric draws fire

Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, is running an ad saying she voted to keep transgender ideology out of schools because boys should not play in girls' sports, drawing criticism from LGBTQ groups.

“I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what's best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls' sports.”

Davis takes similar approach

Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., running in a Trump-leaning district, cites a North Carolina law prohibiting trans women and girls from playing on female sports teams in his campaign ads.

Human Rights Campaign objects

Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, told reporters that candidates like Kaptur and Davis are doing too much and getting too little with their strategies.

“doing too much and getting too little”

Robinson criticizes Kaptur's record

Robinson said Kaptur is bad on both message and policy, noting she voted for a bill that would have put forced outing in place nationally and a don't-say-trans bill.

“You don't have to sacrifice any member of our community to win in these races, to have a message that resonates with voters.”

Robinson praises Brown's response

Robinson praised former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running for Senate in Ohio, for reframing the debate by letting voters speak for themselves rather than attacking the issue directly.

DCCC takes neutral stance

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not advised 2026 candidates to take any particular approach on trans issues, instead encouraging them to explain where they stand in their districts.

Two strategies for handling attacks

Democrats disagree on how to respond to GOP attacks on trans issues. One approach addresses attacks head-on and pivots to values. Another seeks distance to avoid appearing like typical Democrats in redder districts.

Distance strategy works in red areas

A Democratic strategist said the distance approach works better as districts get redder, though both strategies can be effective depending on the political terrain and message testing results.