Musk's Wisconsin lesson

In 2025, Musk spent at least $20 million on Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, wore a cheese hat, and offered $1 million checks to voters. The conservative candidate lost by 10 points.

Now Musk backs Texas Republicans

The world's richest person is now boosting Republican candidates in critical midterm elections, including the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.

Republicans want Musk invisible

More than half a dozen Republican strategists in the Texas race say they hope Musk stays out of the spotlight, unlike his public Wisconsin campaign. They fear Democrats will use him as a boogeyman.

“He came in super late, and it was very public. Elon spending money became the story, which I think maybe was a mistake.”

The 2024 model works better

Republicans want Musk to follow his 2024 approach, when he spent over $250 million on Trump and Republicans without high-profile stunts, leading to a GOP sweep.

Democrats welcome Musk's involvement

Democrats say they want Musk to campaign openly in Texas, arguing his failed Wisconsin record and billionaire interference play into their narrative about elites controlling working people.

“Elon, bring it. You've failed in Wisconsin. You'll fail in Texas.”

Talarico's top versus bottom message

Democrat James Talarico is running on costs and corruption, framing the divide as top versus bottom with billionaires controlling the working class. Musk's late-stage intervention would reinforce this.

The transgender culture war angle

Paxton's campaign amplifies Talarico's past remarks supporting transgender people, including saying God is nonbinary. Musk has publicly criticized his own transgender daughter, making this a natural fit.

America PAC's Texas spending

Musk's America PAC has spent nearly $5.2 million in Texas so far on digital ads, mail, and calls, with spending expected to climb significantly. It's the PAC's biggest single-state investment.

Paxton's fundraising turnaround

In June, Talarico had $21 million cash on hand versus Paxton's $1.7 million. Republican money from multiple sources has now flooded in, flipping the financial advantage to Paxton.

MAGA Inc. and Lone Star Liberty

MAGA Inc. has spent $10 million on TV ads in Texas, its second-biggest single-state investment. Lone Star Liberty PAC has pumped at least $15 million into TV ads attacking Talarico.

Paxton's vulnerability problem

Paxton is scandal-plagued, impeached, and indicted. He barely won a contentious primary against Senator John Cornyn, leaving Republicans scrambling to cover a seat they expected to hold easily.

The coordination challenge

Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee had to scramble after Trump's late Paxton endorsement upended their budget plans. Multiple groups are now coordinating ground game and digital spending.

Democrats counter with people power

Talarico's campaign frames the race as billionaire-backed dark money versus a people-powered movement to fix a broken political system, turning Musk's involvement into a central campaign message.

“Billionaire-backed dark money groups are lying about James because they're scared of the people-powered movement we're building.”