Talarico edges Paxton in tight Senate race

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 46% to 43%, but the margin falls within the poll's 4-point error range. Eight percent of voters remain undecided.

Abbott leads Hinojosa for governor

Gov. Greg Abbott takes 48% to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 41% in the gubernatorial race, a wider edge that remains technically within the margin of error.

Latino voters swing back left

Talarico leads with Latino voters 54% to 36%, while Hinojosa leads 52% to 39%. This marks a shift from 2024, when Trump won 55% of Hispanic votes in Texas.

Hinojosa needs 64% of Latino vote

To win statewide, Hinojosa indicated she needs 64% of the Latino vote, the benchmark Beto O'Rourke achieved in 2018 when he came closest to flipping Texas. Hispanic voters make up about a third of the state's electorate.

“When I get 64% of the Latino vote in 2026, I win.”

Economy and immigration drive voters

Among all voters, the economy and jobs rank highest at 24%, followed by inflation and cost of living at 23%. For Hispanic voters, inflation tops concerns at 33%, with immigration second at 23%.

Social issues rank low in voter priorities

Abortion and trans rights rank at just 6% importance among all voters and 4% among Hispanic voters, despite Republican super PACs spending millions on ads targeting Talarico over trans issues.

Sharp racial divide on ICE cooperation

White voters favor police cooperation with ICE on traffic stops 62% to 32%, while Black voters oppose it 66% to 24%. Hispanic voters are nearly split at 45% support and 48% opposition.

Texans oppose school voucher program

Sixty-three percent of voters oppose using state tax dollars for private school tuition, while 30% support it. The voucher program has been controversial in Texas.