From NPR · · 2m
Southern Democrats won by turnout, not just Trump voters staying home
Black voters showed up in force while Republicans stayed home, flipping Senate seats across the South in the 2026 midterms.
In brief
Black voters showed up in force while Republicans stayed home, flipping Senate seats across the South in the 2026 midterms. Democratic Senate victories in the South came from higher turnout in Harris-won counties and a sharp Republican dropoff, not just lower overall midterm participation. Originally reported by NPR.
Democrats won the South on turnout
In six southern states, turnout dropped 19 percent in counties won by Kamala Harris in 2024, but 26 percent in counties won by Donald Trump. The difference proved decisive.
The six states and the swing
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina swung an average of 22 points towards Democrats, larger than the national swing of about 14.5 points.
Senate seats flipped on the margins
Democrats flipped Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Mississippi. In Mississippi, Scott Colom outperformed Harris by roughly 8,100 votes and won by just over 5,600 votes.
Black voters turned out in force
Majority-Black counties had about 85 percent voter turnout compared to 76 percent for white, non-Hispanic majority counties. Sixteen majority-Black counties had more Democratic votes than in 2024.
The Voting Rights Act decision mattered
The Louisiana v. Callais Supreme Court decision gutted part of the Voting Rights Act and led to changed congressional maps across the South, spurring Black voter participation in special elections and primaries.
Republicans collapsed in North Carolina
Former Gov. Roy Cooper flipped the Senate race by 20 points. Michael Whatley earned 1.25 million fewer votes than Trump in 2024, a roughly 43 percent drop in Republican support.
No county matched Trump's 2024 totals
Across all 518 counties and parishes in the six southern states, none came close to matching Trump's 2024 vote totals. Greene County, Georgia had the smallest dropoff at 83 percent of Trump's votes.
Atlanta suburbs saw the biggest losses
Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb and Cherokee counties lost between 35,000 and 77,000 Republican votes each. Democrats saw smaller losses in those areas, with slight gains in Gwinnett and Cherokee.
In short
Democratic Senate victories in the South came from higher turnout in Harris-won counties and a sharp Republican dropoff, not just lower overall midterm participation.
