From NZ Herald · · 2m
Election 2026 Campaign Diary: Opportunity Party Wins Political Play
Opportunity Party secures balance of power in New Zealand election race.
In brief
Opportunity Party secures balance of power in New Zealand election race. Opportunity Party holds balance of power in polls and could decide which bloc governs New Zealand after November 7 election. Originally reported by NZ Herald.
Opportunity Party's Political Position
Opportunity Party held balance of power in 1News-Verian and Anacta polls this week, deciding which bloc would govern New Zealand after November 7 election.
“The political play belonged to the Opportunity Party this week. It was talked about by almost every other party.”
National's Stance on Coalition
National campaign manager Simeon Brown insisted the party would not work with Opportunity after Christopher Luxon suggested he could work with 'whoever' needed after November 7 election.
“It was the centre of clarification by National campaign manager Simeon Brown who insisted that the party would not work with them, after leader Christopher Luxon suggested in Greymouth that he could work with 'whoever' was needed after the November 7 election.”
Act's Position on Coalition
Act's David Seymour stated he could work with Opportunity if it meant keeping Labour and Greens out of government.
“It was also the centre of a new position from Act’s David Seymour, who said he could work with Opportunity, if it meant keeping Labour and the Greens out of Government.”
Labour's Coalition Preference
Labour campaign chairman Kieran McAnulty preferred a coalition with Greens and Opportunity over Te Pāti Māori to oust them from all Māori seats.
“Labour campaign chairman Kieran McAnulty said his preference was a coalition with the Greens and Opportunity over Te Pāti Māori, on the basis that Labour was campaigning to oust Te Pāti Māori from all the Māori seats.”
Opportunity Leader's Debate Performance
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong differentiated her party from Greens and argued they could work with National to prevent extreme ideas.
“Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong achieved two things in the TVNZ debate: she differentiated her party clearly from the Greens and convincingly argued that the party could work with National to keep out extreme ideas.”
Wong's Position on Coalition
Wong dispelled doubts that Opportunity would automatically side with the left bloc despite left-leaning policies.
“If there was any doubt that Opportunity would automatically side with the left bloc because it has left-leaning policy, Wong dispelled it.”
Wong's Coalition Strategy
Wong's willingness to consider a support agreement with National may lose Opportunity support but clarifies the party's position.
“Wong’s overt willingness to consider a support agreement with National may lose support for Opportunity, but at least she has made the party’s position clear.”
Luxon's Coalition Position
Christopher Luxon would not refuse to take Opportunity's call on November 8 if needed to govern.
“Like almost every New Zealander, she does not believe Luxon would refuse to take her call on November 8 if he needed her to govern.”
Luxon's Leadership Risk
If Luxon refused Opportunity's call, his caucus would immediately remove him as leader.
“And we can be sure that his caucus would not tolerate it either. If he refused, he would be immediately removed as leader and replaced by someone who would take the call.”
Ad Watch: Channelling Gregan
NZ First's ad uses Taine Randell to channel George Gregan's rugby analogy about political leadership.
“Channelling Gregan: NZ First’s ad using the star power of former All Black captain and Tukituki candidate Taine Randell with leader Winston Peters channels the former Aussie great George Gregan.”
National's Campaign Strategy
National is spending big money to counter split-vote strategy promoted by Don Brash, Maurice Williamson, Harry Mowbray and Michael Laws.
“National is spending big money trying to counter the split-vote strategy being promoted by Don Brash, Maurice Williamson, Harry Mowbray and Michael Laws.”
Minimum Wage Blunder
Christopher Luxon claimed his government increased minimum wage in line with inflation for three years, but the figures show increases were ahead of inflation.
“The first increase of the adult minimum wage approved by the Government, to take effect on April 1, 2024, was 2% (annual CPI for the preceding year was 4%); the second increase for 2025 was 1.5% (CPI 2.5%), and the third was 2% (CPI 3.1%).”
Mongrel Mob Controversy
Green and Te Pāti Māori MPs posed with Mongrel Mob, risking damage to their coalition strategy.
“The second was the decision by Green and Te Pāti Māori MPs and candidates to pose enthusiastically with the Mongrel Mob and post the photos on social media.”
Mongrel Mob Question
Greens co-leader Marama Davidson responded to reporter about meeting with Mexican cartels.
“Are you okay? Greens co-leader Marama Davidson in response to a cheeky reporter asking if the Greens would be comfortable meeting with Mexican cartels, linking the Mob to drug crimes.”
Upcoming Events
Chris Hipkins has policy announcement in Wellington; Christopher Luxon has policy announcement in Auckland; Winston Peters has public meeting in Christchurch.
“Sunday: Chris Hipkins has a policy announcement in Wellington; Christopher Luxon has a policy announcement in Auckland; Winston Peters has a public meeting in Christchurch, 2pm; Better Public Media hosts a debate in Wellington, 7pm.”
The key point
Opportunity Party holds balance of power in polls and could decide which bloc governs New Zealand after November 7 election.
