From NZ Herald · · 2m
Labour Greens Opportunity Coalition Probability
Labour, Greens and Opportunity coalition now 27.5% chance to form next government.
In brief
Labour, Greens and Opportunity coalition now 27.5% chance to form next government. Labour, Green Party and Opportunity Party have a 27.5% probability of forming New Zealand's next government according to the latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls. Originally reported by NZ Herald.
Poll of polls model
The latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls shows Labour, Green Party and Opportunity Party have a 27.5% chance to form New Zealand's next government.
Coalition probability
Adding Te Pāti Māori increases the probability to 55.5% for a Labour, Green Party, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori coalition.
Opportunity party strength
Opportunity Party has crossed the 5% threshold with enough seats to decide the next government's composition.
National coalition probability
National, New Zealand First and Act have a 30.6% probability of forming the next government, down from over 80% early this year.
Campaign stance
Opportunity Party campaign chairman Kieran McAnulty prefers working with Opportunity over Te Pāti Māori in government.
Coalition seat math
Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori secure 50 seats while Opportunity has 11, giving a one-seat majority without overhangs.
National bloc seats
National, NZ First and Act bloc have only enough support for 59 seats, requiring position change on Opportunity to govern.
Predicted party votes
National has highest predicted vote at 28.5%, followed by Labour at 26.5%, Green Party at 13.4%.
Model methodology
The model runs thousands of election simulations to calculate probabilities while adjusting for pollsters' 'house effects'.
Overhang strategy
Te Pāti Māori and coalition supporters deliberately try to cause an overhang by encouraging vote splitting.
Coalition viability
Adding Opportunity to the coalition brings the probability of a four-party government to 99.9%.
Party leadership stances
National leader Christopher Luxon and NZ First leader Winston Peters have ruled out working with Opportunity.
Act leader position
Act leader David Seymour said he would be open to Opportunity if it meant returning to government.
Election outcome
The model assumes no overhangs, with Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori securing 50 seats and Opportunity 11 for a one-seat majority.
Next steps
National, NZ First and Act need to change their position on Opportunity to continue governing.
The essence
Labour, Green Party and Opportunity Party have a 27.5% probability of forming New Zealand's next government according to the latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls.
