From NZ Herald · · 1m 50s
New poll shows Labour edging ahead of National
Labour gains narrow lead over National in election poll as Opportunity hits 5% threshold.
In brief
Labour gains narrow lead over National in election poll as Opportunity hits 5% threshold. Labour leads National in new poll at 29% to 28% with Opportunity at 5% as election approaches. Originally reported by NZ Herald.
New poll results
Labour leads National in new poll at 29% to 28% with Opportunity at 5%.
Polling methodology
Anacta poll conducted online from October 6 to 10 with 1352 New Zealanders aged 18+.
Party standings
Greens up three points to 15%, New Zealand First stable at 10%, Act up one to 9%.
Opportunity's position
Opportunity holds 5% with Labour preferred by 50% of voters.
Voter expectations
43% expect Labour-led government up 4% from previous poll.
Government performance
53% disapprove of National-led government performance.
Age engagement
64% of over 60s follow campaign closely versus 35% of 18-29s.
Political dynamics
National, Act and New Zealand First combined at 48% while Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori at 46%.
Historical context
National's lowest result since November 2021 when Luxon took over as leader.
Green Party status
Greens on best result since July 2017 when Jacinda Ardern took over.
Gang controversy
Poll conducted before Mongrel Mob gang visit controversy engulfing Greens.
Leadership race
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon tied at 22% each in preferred Prime Minister race.
Opportunity's role
Opportunity holds balance of power with only 5% support.
Voter confidence
49% think country heading in wrong direction versus 40% right direction.
Election impact
Opportunity's 5% threshold critical for coalition formation.
Future implications
Labour and National tied with Opportunity holding balance of power.
In short
Labour leads National in new poll at 29% to 28% with Opportunity at 5% as election approaches.
