From New York Post · · 1m 30s
Vance says Iran war is nearing a new phase
JD Vance says the Iran conflict has moved from major strikes to containment, with Hormuz still under pressure.
In brief
JD Vance says the Iran conflict has moved from major strikes to containment, with Hormuz still under pressure. Washington says its first goal was to damage Iran’s nuclear and military power. The next test is whether Iran can be contained without wider disruption. Originally reported by New York Post.
A new phase soon
JD Vance said the US conflict with Iran could look very different in a couple of months, echoing Trump’s claim that the war may end after the midterms.
“this thing will enter a much different phase in a couple of months”
Hormuz is still strained
Vance said Iran is losing control over the Strait of Hormuz, but public shipping counts remain far below prewar levels. Only 11 vessels crossed in the last 24 hours.
“returned to well over 50% of normal traffic”
Dark escorts hide traffic
The US has quietly escorted oil tankers with transponders off to avoid Iranian attacks. That makes public shipping trackers an incomplete view of traffic through Hormuz.
Iran keeps striking
US officials say Iran’s missile and drone capacity has been degraded, but Tehran is still hitting commercial vessels and launching attacks on American bases in the region.
“the Iranians are occasionally shooting at commercial shipping”
Vance defines two phases
Vance said the first phase was to damage Iran’s nuclear program, conventional military, and regional reach. The second is stopping a rebuild while keeping global stability.
“The first phase is done”
Trump ties timing to oil
Trump said oil prices would fall after the election and argued Iran could not hold out much longer. It remains unclear whether he will seek a deal or expand attacks.
“right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward”
The headline
Washington says its first goal was to damage Iran’s nuclear and military power. The next test is whether Iran can be contained without wider disruption.
