From New York Post · · 1m 20s
Why Soto is the home run bet Tuesday
Two shaky starters at Citi Field, one hitter with a history against the guy on the mound.
In brief
Two shaky starters at Citi Field, one hitter with a history against the guy on the mound. Soto has homered off Shane Baz before, and Baz throws the exact pitch Soto punishes: the four-seam fastball. Originally reported by New York Post.
Pete Alonso comes home
The Orioles visit Queens on Tuesday night with Alonso in their lineup, back at Citi Field as a visitor after leaving the Mets in free agency.
Neither starter inspires
Shane Baz is 2-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 10 road starts. Sean Manaea has given up 16 hits and nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings this month.
“both starting pitchers at Citi Field for this matchup have not been up to par”
The line and the total
Sportsbooks make the Mets -130 home favorites with the over/under set at 8.5 total runs. Both clubs are sitting near the bottom of their divisions.
Soto owns this pitcher
The five-time All-Star is 3-for-5 against Baz in eight career plate appearances, with a home run and an RBI already on the ledger.
Fastballs are his food
Baz leans on a four-seamer for 34.4 percent of his pitches. Soto is hitting .294 against fastballs this season with 53 hits and 17 home runs.
“He has a good chance to go yard in this matchup.”
The play, not the side
Manaea's September keeps the writer off the Mets moneyline. The bet is narrower: Juan Soto to record a home run at +320 on FanDuel.
“THE PLAY: Juan Soto to record a Home Run (+320, FanDuel)”
The big picture
Soto has homered off Shane Baz before, and Baz throws the exact pitch Soto punishes: the four-seam fastball.
