Kansas Senate Race Tightens

Democrat Adam Hamilton edges Republican Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race amid shifting polls.

Sep 18, 2026

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Kansas Senate Race Tightens

Democrat Adam Hamilton edges Republican Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race amid shifting polls.

In brief

Democrat Adam Hamilton edges Republican Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race amid shifting polls. Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race by 45-43 percent in latest poll, with independents driving the close. Originally reported by Newsweek.

Kansas Senate Race Tightens

Kansas Senate race shows signs of becoming more competitive than Republicans expected in a state where Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in nearly a century.

New Poll Shows Hamilton Lead

A new survey gives Democrat Adam Hamilton (R) a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall (L) in Kansas.

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, with libertarian David Graham at 4 percent.

Hamilton's Campaign Background

Hamilton, founder of the country's largest United Methodist Church, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932.

Vice President Support

Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to make a stop in Olathe, Kansas, on Monday to show support for Marshall.

Polls Show Tight Race

Polls Show Tight Race

An earlier co/efficient poll showed Marshall leading Hamilton 49 percent to 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided, while a Global Strategy Group poll found Hamilton narrowly ahead 44 percent to 43 percent.

Prediction Markets Favor Marshall

Kalshi gives Marshall a 74 percent chance of winning compared with 26 percent for Hamilton, while Polymarket gives Marshall a 71 percent chance and Hamilton 28 percent.

Independents Drive Close Race

Hamilton leads independents 42 percent to 27 percent, while Marshall is underwater 41 percent favorable to 48 percent unfavorable.

Election Forecast Shift

Kansas Governor Laura Kelly speaks to supporters in Topeka on November 8, 2022.

Cook Political Report shifted the contest from 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican' after Hamilton won the Democratic primary.

Senate Race Consequence

Hamilton's victory could help Democrats take control of the Senate, while Marshall warns it could shift Kansas toward Democratic influence.

The big picture

Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race by 45-43 percent in latest poll, with independents driving the close.

Read the original on Newsweek

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