From Newsweek · · 2m
Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Trump's Odds
Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces odds of 1% on prediction markets as humanitarian groups lead contenders.
In brief
Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces odds of 1% on prediction markets as humanitarian groups lead contenders. Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces 1% market odds while Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead at 15% on prediction markets. Originally reported by Newsweek.
Trump's Nobel Bid
President Donald Trump renewed his case for the Nobel Peace Prize citing his record on international conflicts while acknowledging it's unlikely he will receive the award.
Market Odds
Trump's contract trades at about 1 percent implied probability on prediction markets while Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead at 15 percent.
Humanitarian Focus
Humanitarian organizations like Sudan relief groups are frequently awarded the prize because they save lives and are among the least controversial candidates.
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms are community-led volunteer networks providing humanitarian assistance during Sudan's civil war with 15 percent market odds.
Mykola Kuleba
Mykola Kuleba founded Save Ukraine in 2014 to rescue Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and assist displaced families with 10 percent market odds.
Save the Children
Save the Children ranks third on prediction markets at 7 percent with PRIO listing it as a strong possibility for an award focused on children in war.
Yulia Navalnaya
Yulia Navalnaya chairs the Anti-Corruption Foundation founded by her late husband and trades at approximately 5 percent on prediction markets.
International Court of Justice
The International Court of Justice has approximately 4 percent market odds and appears on PRIO's updated list alongside the International Criminal Court.
Committee to Protect Journalists
The Committee to Protect Journalists trades at approximately 3 percent on prediction markets with PRIO including it on its updated shortlist.
Nobel Committee Process
The Nobel Committee received 287 candidates this year comprising 208 individuals and 79 organizations with nomination records sealed for 50 years.
Trump's Past Connection
Trump received indirect Nobel recognition last year when Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented him with her Nobel medal during a White House meeting.
Market Fluidity
Prediction markets show high fluidity with contracts trading at 15 cents representing approximately 15 percent market-implied probability.
The essence
Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces 1% market odds while Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead at 15% on prediction markets.
