Millions land in Texas

With under two months to Election Day, Republican groups are flooding Texas to prop up Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate run.

A $51 million ad buy

Texas PAC, tied to the Senate Leadership Fund, has bought more than $51 million in ads backing Paxton, per AdImpact.

Why the panic

Democrat James Talarico is polling neck and neck with Paxton, turning a safe red seat into one of the country's most watched races.

The math for Democrats

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats must hold every seat they have, including two in states Trump won, and flip four more.

A 30-year drought

Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and Trump carried it by 13.7 points in 2024. Beto O'Rourke's 2018 run fell short too.

Paxton beat Cornyn first

Paxton won the May primary against longtime Senator John Cornyn, then picked up Trump's endorsement for the general.

Musk and MAGA join in

MAGA Inc. reserved about $10 million in Texas ads. Elon Musk's America PAC has spent over $2.6 million boosting Paxton and hitting Talarico.

A strategy reversal

The Senate Leadership Fund left Texas off its April target list. Now its chief says the party is united behind Paxton.

“The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November.”

Talarico had the money

By the end of June, Talarico had raised $68.5 million to Paxton's $9.2 million, with $21.5 million banked against Paxton's $1.75 million.

Polls say coin flip

YouGov had Talarico up 5. Overton found a 44 to 43.4 dead heat. Emerson gave Paxton 47 to 46. Kalshi has them tied at 50.

The national drag

Trump sits at 34 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. Silver Bulletin shows Democrats ahead in nine Republican-held seats, Texas included.