From Newsweek · · 3m
Trump's approval crumbles in states Canada targeted
A trade war with Canada is eroding presidential support in eight key Republican states, giving fresh weight to a political targeting strategy.
In brief
A trade war with Canada is eroding presidential support in eight key Republican states, giving fresh weight to a political targeting strategy. Trump's approval rating fell in seven of eight states that Canada strategically targeted with tariffs, suggesting the trade dispute is damaging his standing with his own base…
Canada's tariff strategy targets Trump states
Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Canada to impose tariffs on eight states crucial to Trump's political base: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Texas and Wisconsin.
Trade talks collapse, tariffs take effect
On August 22, negotiations between the U.S. and Canada broke down, triggering 50 percent American tariffs on roughly 20 billion dollars of Canadian imports.
Trump approval drops in seven target states
Between August 22 and September 16, Trump's net approval rating fell in seven of the eight states Canada targeted, according to Civiqs tracking data.
Arkansas loses 5 points of support
Arkansas approval slipped from 53 to 50 percent, narrowing Trump's positive rating from plus 12 to plus 7 points as disapproval rose from 41 to 43 percent.
Florida swings 5 points negative
Florida's rating fell from minus 9 to minus 14, with approval dropping to 40 percent and disapproval rising to 54 percent.
Montana and Wisconsin also slip
Montana lost 4 points, moving from plus 4 to zero. Wisconsin fell from minus 16 to minus 19, and both Missouri and Texas deteriorated by 2 points each.
Iowa bucks the trend slightly
Iowa was the only state to improve, with approval rising 6 points to 43 percent, moving its net rating from minus 17 to minus 12.
National approval hits 34 percent
On September 16, Trump's nationwide approval stood at just 34 percent with 60 percent disapproval among registered voters, according to Civiqs.
Why Ford picked these eight states
Ford argued these states were politically significant to Trump's base and economically exposed to Canada. Texas exported 35 billion dollars to Canada in 2025, while Iowa sent 30 percent of its total exports there.
“"We cannot back down in the face of economic coercion."”
Canadians back the political logic
The Globe and Mail editorial board supported targeting U.S. voters politically while rejecting tariffs economically, saying there was a limited case for making American politicians aware of trade war consequences.
“"A new Congress that is willing to enforce U.S. law and to halt Mr. Trump's trade tantrums: that is retaliation worth pursuing."”
Americans oppose Trump's tariff approach
An Economist/YouGov poll found 58 percent opposed raising tariffs on Canadian goods, 68 percent said tariffs hurt average Americans, and 64 percent viewed Canada as an ally.
Canada explores European partnership
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the first associate member of the European Union, offering a new trade relationship as tensions with the U.S. escalate.
White House dismisses approval concerns
White House spokesman Davis Ingle argued Trump's 2024 election victory is a more meaningful measure of support than current polling, saying the economic agenda is still taking effect.
“"The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump."”
The takeaway
Trump's approval rating fell in seven of eight states that Canada strategically targeted with tariffs, suggesting the trade dispute is damaging his standing with his own base.
