From Newsweek · · 3m
Trump's farm state problem as diesel hits record high
Rising fuel costs are tanking Trump's approval in America's biggest agricultural states ahead of the 2026 midterms.
In brief
Rising fuel costs are tanking Trump's approval in America's biggest agricultural states ahead of the 2026 midterms. Record diesel prices driven by Middle East disruptions are eroding Trump's support among farmers in key states, creating an opening for Democrats in traditionally Republican agricultural regions…
Trump's approval sinks in farm states
Trump's approval rating is underwater in nine of the ten largest agricultural states, a warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Diesel hits record high of $6.31
Diesel prices surged to $6.3103 per gallon on Wednesday, up from $5.9424 one week earlier and $3.7008 one year ago.
Iran war disrupts global fuel supply
Rising diesel prices stem from disruptions to oil and fuel shipments in the Middle East amid the United States' war in Iran, which began earlier this year.
Diesel powers every farm operation
Farmers rely on diesel to run tractors, harvesters, combines, planters, and irrigation pumps. Diesel also powers trucks and trains that move crops through the supply chain.
“The entire farm machinery process, whether it's planting to harvest, requires diesel fuel directly.”
Farmers face multiple cost pressures
Beyond diesel, farmers are squeezed by rising input costs tied to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Iran war, and trade war disruptions.
Record prices threaten next season
High diesel costs could make farming unprofitable to the point where farmers might not plant next season, especially given low farm prices.
Trump voters criticize fuel costs
Jason Kurtz, a farmer who voted for Trump in 2024, said cash-strapped farms are struggling and must make cuts just to harvest, as diesel costs cut into their bottom line.
“We have to harvest. We have to run the machines. We have to use the diesel, so it cuts into our bottom line.”
California: Trump at 24% approval
In California, the nation's largest agricultural state with $59 billion in annual farm revenue, Trump's approval stands at 24 percent while 71 percent disapprove.
Iowa: Trump at -20 despite 2024 win
Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, but his approval there is now -20 points, with only 35 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving.
Texas: Trump -18 in swing state race
Trump's approval in Texas is -18 points, with 38 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving, despite winning the state by 14 points in 2024.
Nebraska and Kansas show divergence
Trump's approval is -5 in Nebraska and positive at +3 in Kansas, the only major farm state where he remains above water.
Minnesota and Illinois deeply disapprove
Trump's approval is -35 in Minnesota and -37 in Illinois, with only 28 percent and 29 percent approving respectively in these agricultural states.
Democrats hope to flip farm states
Democrats believe backlash to Trump's tariffs and rising diesel prices could improve their chances in Iowa, Texas, and other competitive farm states ahead of November.
Farmers skeptical Democrats can help
Experts note farmers may not vote Democratic even if unhappy with Trump, questioning whether Democrats can solve global commodity issues like Middle East conflicts or achieve peace in Ukraine.
Midterm races tighten across farm belt
Competitive Senate and House races in Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, and Wisconsin could be decided by farmer turnout and support, making diesel prices a critical midterm issue.
The headline
Record diesel prices driven by Middle East disruptions are eroding Trump's support among farmers in key states, creating an opening for Democrats in traditionally Republican agricultural regions.
