From Newsweek · · 1m 10s
Trump’s TACO Test on Russia
Trump’s new sanctions bill tests if he’ll follow through on Russia after past chicken-outs
In brief
Trump’s new sanctions bill tests if he’ll follow through on Russia after past chicken-outs Trump faces a critical choice to impose tariffs on Russia’s top buyers or back down Originally reported by Newsweek.
New sanctions bill passes
The U.S. House approved Lindsey Graham’s bill targeting Russian banks and oil buyers with up to 100% tariffs on China and India.
“The bill, officially titled the 'Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026', targets Russian banks, officials and Moscow's shadow fleet.”
Trump’s power to act
The bill lets Trump impose up to 500% tariffs on Russian goods but requires him to certify national interests before waiving sanctions.
“Section 115 stipulates that the president can waive any sanction, restriction, or duty if he certifies that doing so is in the 'national interests of the United States.'”
Past chicken-outs
Trump previously backed down from sanctions after giving Putin 50 days to end the war, cutting the deadline to 10 or 12 days.
“If I think I’m close to getting a deal, I don’t want to screw it up by doing that.”
China and India spared
After Trump’s ultimatum, China escaped tariffs while India faced a 25% tariff on oil purchases for two years.
“China, the far bigger economic opponent and Moscow’s top customer, escaped punishment.”
TACO theory
Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined 'TACO' to describe Trump’s pattern of backing down on Russia after tough talk.
“The Graham bill gives Trump his best chance yet to disprove that theory.”
New test ahead
Trump must now decide whether to impose tariffs on Russia’s top buyers or back down without consequences.
“The Graham bill gives Trump his best chance yet to disprove that theory; it also leaves him with no excuse if he talks tough again and fails to follow through.”
The takeaway
Trump faces a critical choice to impose tariffs on Russia’s top buyers or back down
